家庭负债、生育成本与二孩生育决策被引量：2

Household Debt,Nurturing Cost,and Second Child Fertility

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摘要家庭负债是影响二孩生育决策的重要因素,二者之间的关系对于研究我国生育水平和人口长期均衡发展等问题具有重要意义。本文运用2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS2019),从家庭资产负债率与债务收入比两方面对我国居民家庭负债进行度量,研究家庭负债与生育成本对二孩生育决策的影响及其异质性,同时考察生育成本对家庭负债影响二孩生育的调节效应。结果表明:家庭负债的增加对二孩生育具有显著抑制作用;生育成本的上升对二孩生育具有显著负向影响;从生育成本对家庭负债影响二孩生育的调节效应来看,生育成本的上升强化了家庭负债对二孩生育的抑制作用;从区域异质性来看,在东部和中部地区,家庭资产负债率和债务收入比的提升均显著抑制二孩生育,而在西部地区,家庭资产负债率对二孩生育的抑制作用显著;资产负债率提升对城镇和农村家庭二孩生育均存在显著抑制作用,而债务收入比提升仅对城镇家庭二孩生育具有显著的抑制作用。由此可见,家庭负债和生育成本对我国居民家庭的二孩生育决策具有较强的约束作用。我国积极生育政策目标应重点考虑提升居民收入,降低生育成本,减轻家庭负债压力,促进我国人口长期均衡发展。 Household debt is an important factor influencing the decision of second child fertility,and the relationship between the two is of significant importance for studying China’s population birth rate and long-term demographic development.This study uses data from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS 2019)to measure household debt in Chinese households from two aspects:household asset liability ratio and income liability ratio.This study explores the impact and heterogeneity of household debt and the nurturing cost on the decision of second child fertility.Additionally,this study examines the moderating effects of the nurturing cost on the impact of household debt on the decision of second child fertility.The results show that an increase in household debt significantly inhibits the decision of second child fertility.Likewise,a rise in nurturing cost also has a substantial inhibitory effect on the decision of second child fertility.When examining the moderating effect of nurturing cost on the impact of household debt on the decision of second child fertility,it is found that an increase in nurturing cost intensifies the inhibitory ef⁃fect of household debt on the decision of second child fertility.In terms of regional heterogeneity,in eastern and central regions,both an increase in household asset liability ratio and income liability ratio significantly inhibit the decision of second child fertility.However,in the western region,the asset liability ratio has a significant inhibitory effect on the decision of second child fertility.The increase in the income liability ratio significantly inhibits the decision of second child fertility in urban households,whereas this inhibitory effect is significant only for urban households and not rural households.It is evident that household debt and nurturing cost exert strong constraints on the decision of second child fertility among Chinese house⁃holds.Therefore,China’s government policy objectives should focus on increasing household income,reduc⁃ing the cos

作者于欣晔冯永琦 YU Xinye;FENG Yongqi(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区吉林大学经济学院

出处《人口学刊》北大核心 2023年第5期31-42,共12页 Population Journal

基金国家社会科学基金一般项目:中国信贷周期形成机理的动态转换与宏观调控研究(20BJY022) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目:跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究(22JJD790066)。

关键词家庭负债资产负债率债务收入比生育成本二孩生育 Household Debt Asset Liability Ratio Income Liability Ratio Nurturing Cost Second Child Fertility

分类号 C924.24 [社会学—人口学]