摘要
针对复杂低渗透油藏直井压裂后产能预测精度较低的问题,采用统计回归方法研究压裂后产油量与各主控因素之间的控制关系,经过多参数组合优选,建立多元回归压裂后产油量预测模型,采用相对误差作为产能预测符合率的控制标准,计算预测模型的符合率。针对多元统计回归方法计算误差较大的层位,依据油藏渗流理论,基于三角形裂缝形态,建立压裂后产油量渗流公式预测方法;采用油藏数值模拟方法确定渗流公式法所需的裂缝参数,利用渗流公式法修正多元统计回归方法的计算结果。研究区内16口压裂试油井实际计算结果表明:多元统计回归方法与渗流公式法相结合,与只利用多元统计回归法相比,压裂后产能预测符合率由71.4%提高到88.6%。
Aiming at the low accuracy of productivity prediction after vertical well fracturing in complex low-permeability reservoir,the control relationship between post fracturing oil production and main control factors is studied by statistical regression method.After multi parameter combination optimization,a multivariate regression oil production prediction model is established.The relative error is used as the control standard for the calculation of production capacity prediction coincidence rate to calculate the prediction coincidence rate of the model.For the layer with large calculation error of multiple statistical regression method,according to the reservoir seepage theory and based on the triangular fracture shape,the prediction method of oil production seepage formula after fracturing is established.The fracture parameters required by seepage formula method are determined by reservoir numerical simulation method,and the calculation results of multiple statistical regression method are modified by seepage formula method.The actual calculation results of 16 fracturing test wells in the study area show that,the combination of multiple statistical regression method and seepage formula method can greatly improve the coincidence rate of post fracturing productivity,and compared with the multiple statistical regression method alone,the prediction coincidence rate is increased from 71.4%to 88.6%.
作者
许淑梅
付晨东
汪爱云
宋延杰
李雪英
姜艳娇
XU Shumei;FU Chendong;WANG Aiyun;SONG Yanjie;LI Xueying;JIANG Yanjiao(Daqing Branch, China National Logging Corporation, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163412, China;School of Earth Sciences, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163318, China;Accumulation and Development of Unconventional Oil and Gas State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base Jointly-Constructed by Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163318, China)
出处
《测井技术》
CAS
2022年第2期135-140,173,共7页
Well Logging Technology
基金
中国石油天然气集团有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“低对比度油气层测井识别技术研究与应用”(2019D-3809)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目“致密砂岩导电规律与导电模型实验研究”(D2015012)
黑龙江省博士后资助项目“致密砂岩储层产能预测方法研究”(LBH-Z18038)。
关键词
统计回归法
渗流公式法
油藏数值模拟
压裂后产能预测
压裂裂缝参数
statistical regression method
seepage formula method
reservoir numerical simulation
fractured productivity prediction
fracturing fracture parameter
