摘要
为保障铁路系统在灾害风险中的运营安全,进行铁路系统面对灾害风险防控能力的研究。将韧性概念应用于铁路系统领域,界定韧性铁路系统的内涵和特征,构建适用铁路运营的韧性指标选取框架;确定影响铁路系统韧性的变量因素及多种因素间的关系。通过收集国内铁路事故调查报告,基于贝叶斯网络建立铁路系统韧性网络推理模型,提出量化铁路系统韧性指标;通过改变模型中的网络节点属性,分析韧性影响因素对铁路系统的贡献程度,确定事故风险的关键因素,切断风险源传播路径,提升铁路系统自身抗灾能力。研究结果表明:为了确保铁路系统在灾害冲击下的正常运行状态,必须提高铁路系统的应急储备与防灾措施的冗余,以满足铁路的防灾抗灾需要。
In order to ensure the operational safety of the railway system,research on the prevention and control capability of the railway system in the face of disaster risks was conducted.A concept of resilience was introduced railway systems.The meaning and characteristics of resilient railway systems were defined.A framework for selecting resilience indicators applicable to railway operations was constructed.To determine the variable factors affecting the resilience of railway systems and the relationship between multiple factors,railway accident investigation reports were collected,and a network model of railway system resilience was established using Bayesian networks to achieve the purpose of quantifying system resilience.By changing the attributes of each node in the model,we analyzed the degree of contribution of each factor to system resilience and determine the main factors that need to be prevented and controlled,so as to improve system resilience.The results show that:In order to ensure the normal operating condition of the railway system under the impact of disasters,it is necessary to improve the redundancy of the emergency reserves and disaster prevention measures of the railway system to meet the needs of disaster prevention and resilience of the railway.
作者
胡杨
郭健
裴欣茹
HU Yang;GUO Jian;PEI Xin-ru(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430023,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《武汉轻工大学学报》
2022年第2期72-79,共8页
Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic University
基金
中国工程院重大咨询研究课题项目(2019-ZD-19-08).
关键词
铁路系统
灾害韧性
贝叶斯网络
抗灾能力
railway systems
disaster resilience
Bayesian networks
disaster resistance
