摘要
以江苏省为研究区域,收集了中国天气网2019-2020年逐日15 d天气预报数据,以实际温度数据与HS公式计算出的ET_(0)值为基准,采用RMSE、MAE等指标对ET_(0)预报效果进行了分析,采用准确率、漏报率、空报率以及ROC曲线等指标对降水预报进行了评价。结果表明:日低温预报的准确率比日高温预报的高,在相同天数的预报,准确率相差10%左右,江苏省未来1~7 d气温预报误差的RMSE值均在4.0℃以下,MAE值均在2.0℃以下,可以用于计算ET_(0)预报值;江苏全省未来1~7 d ET_(0)预报误差的MAE值均在1.5 mm/d以内,RMSE值基本都在2 mm/d以内,且东部的预报准确度比中西部的高;江苏省未来14 d降水预报的ROC曲线均在对角线以上,具有预报价值,江苏省未来降水预报对中雨及以上量级的降水漏报率和空报率最低,分别为0.08和0.34,且全省未来1天预报的准确率达到了0.9,未来14 d降水预报的准确率南北差异不大。
By taking Jiangsu Province as the research area,this paper collects 15-day weather forecast data from China Weather Network for 2019-2020 based on the actual temperature data and the ET_(0) value calculated by the HS formula,and uses RMSE,MAE and other indicators to evaluate the ET_(0) forecast effect.The precipitation forecast is analyzed and evaluated by using indicators such as accuracy rate,false negative rate,false alarm rate and ROC curve.The results show that the accuracy of daily low temperature forecasts is higher than that of daily high temperature forecasts.The accuracy of forecasts for the same number of days differs by about 10%.The RMSE value of the forecast error of the future 1~7 weather in Jiangsu Province is below 4.0℃,and the MAE value values below 2.0℃ can be used to calculate the ET_(0) forecast;the MAE values of the ET_(0) forecast errors in the next 1~7 days in Jiangsu Province are all within 1.5 mm/d,and the RMSE values are basically within 2 mm/d The forecast accuracy in the eastern part is higher than that in the central and western parts;the ROC curve of the precipitation forecast for the next 14 days in Jiangsu Province is above the diagonal,which is of forecast value.The future precipitation forecast in Jiangsu Province underreports the precipitation of moderate rain and above.The lowest rate and empty report rate are 0.08 and 0.34,respectively,and the province’s forecast accuracy rate for the next day reaches 0.9.The accuracy rate of precipitation forecasts for the next 14 days is not much different from north to south.
作者
陈岗
王卫光
丁一民
童山琳
CHEN Gang;WANG Wei-guang;DING Yi-min;TONG Shan-lin(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2022年第5期70-76,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51779073)。
关键词
温度预报
参考作物蒸发腾发量预报
降水预报
准确度
temperature forecast
reference crop evapotranspiration forecast
precipitation forecast
accuracy
