摘要
在德州市1984-2013年降雨量资料的基础上,建立基于秩次集对分析的年降雨量预测模型,进而对德州市某一年的降雨量进行预测,并与实际值进行比较,验证该方法的可行性。结论:该方法概念清楚、计算简单、使用方便,不需对数据作预处理,克服了分类标准确定主观性的缺点。所预测数值的相对误差均在可控范围以内,说明该方法对降雨量的预测是可行而有效的,可以利用该方法对德州市未来年份的雨洪资源潜力进行预测。
The annual rainfall forecast model was set up based on Set Pair Analysis on the basis of the annual rainfall data in Dezhou from 1984 to 2013, then forecasted one year rainfall in Dezhou, and compared with the actual value, verified the feasibility of this method. Conclusion: This method is clear in concept simple in calculation、convenient to use, don’t need for preprocessing the data, overcomes the shortcoming of subjectivity in determine the classification standard. The relative error of predicted values are within the controllable range, which show that the method is fea easible and effective for rainfall prediction, so can use the method to forecast the potential of rainfall flood resources in Dezhou in the future.
作者
刘永
马飞
董小花
张坤强
张风友
LIU Yong;MA Fei;DONG Xiao-hua;ZHANG Kun-qiang;ZHANG Feng-you(Water Conservancy Development Center of Dezhou City,Dezhou 253014,China;Binzhou Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Service Center,Binzhou 256600,China;College of Conservancy and Civil Engineering/Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China;Planning Compiling Research Center of Qingzhou City,Qingzhou 262500,China)
出处
《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2022年第2期310-313,共4页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition
基金
山东省自然基金(ZR2018PEE027)。
关键词
集对分析
雨洪
预测
Set Pair Analysis
rainfall and flood
prediction
