摘要
本文应用多维家庭人口预测模型(ProFamy)等方法研究发现,至21世纪中叶中国五大区域残障老人家庭照料需求成本将大幅上升,高龄与空巢老人是照料需求高发群体。东中部地区主要面临残障老人“大规模”引发的照料负担加剧;西北及东北则更多面临残障老人“快速”增长对相对薄弱的养老保障体系的冲击。鉴于此,需要建立地区性老年家庭照料需求监测与差异化干预机制,在进一步推进养老服务体系扩容的同时,加快补齐落后地区养老财富储备短板。
Using the methods of Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections(ProFamy), our study finds that home-based care needs and costs will increase fast in all the five regions of China during 2010-2050. The eastern and central regions will encounter the heavy burden of care brought about by the large emergence of the disabled elderly, while the northwest and northeast region will suffer from the impact of the rapid growth of the disabled elders. It is necessary to establish a regional elderly home-based care demand monitoring and intervention mechanism.
作者
白晨
陈华帅
王正联
曾毅
Chen Bai;Huashuai Chen;Zhenglian Wang;Yi Zeng(Renmin University of China;Xiangtan University;China Population and Development Research Center;Duke University;Peking University)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期653-676,共24页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家自然科学基金管理学部重大项目(71490732)
中国人民大学校级科研基金(21XNA013)
湖南省自然科学基金(2020JJ4087)
湖南省社会科学基金(18YBA410)
亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室国际合作课题(2020ZB10)的资助。
关键词
五大区域
残障老人
家庭照料需求成本
five regions
disabled elders
home-based care needs and costs
