摘要
粮食能否稳定供应的关键是粮食产量.影响粮食产量的因素错综复杂,基于1994-2019《中国统计年鉴》的相关数据,选取了影响粮食产量的9大指标,通过HP滤波对数据进行预处理,使用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析发现:农用化肥施用量对当期粮食产量的冲击最大(11.153).第一产业就业人数是粮食播种面积格兰杰原因,劳动力投入会对粮食播种面积强影响,说明我国农业对就业人口的劳动力仍有较强的依赖.因此,提出以下建议:1)化肥与有机肥结合使用;2)提高土壤养分含量保证粮食生产;3)加大推广农业机械化智能化的力度,充分释放第一产业就业人口.
The key to stable grain supply is grain output.Based on the relevant data of China Statistical Yearbook from 1994 to 2019,this paper selects nine major indicators affecting grain yield,preprocesses the data through HP filter,and uses Vector Autoregressive model(VAR)analysis to find that the impact of agricultural fertilizer application on current grain yield is the largest(11.153).The number of employment in the primary industry is the Granger cause of grain planting area,and labor input will have a strong impact on grain planting area,indicating that China’s agriculture still has a strong dependence on the labor force of the employed population.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:1)combine chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer;2)increase soil nutrient content to ensure food production;3)intensify efforts to promote mechanization and intellectualization of agriculture to fully unleash the number of people employed in primary industries.
作者
曲立
栾慧雨
高凯烨
彭锐
QU Li;LUAN Hui-yu;GAO Kai-ye;PENG Rui(Beijing Information Science&:Technology University,Beijing 100192,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
2022年第4期61-73,共13页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(72001027)
北京市教委(KM202111232007)
北京信息科技大学“勤信青年拔尖人才”项目(QXTCP B202102)
中国博士后科学基金(2021M693331)。
