摘要
本文构造了未来30年中国粮食贸易体系运行的理论机制,设定了“2020~2025年”、“2030~2035年”和“2050~2055年”3个基期,重构了“综合粮食”和“外国”的概念体系。通过基于MATLAB架构的RECS模拟量化比较了30万组可能的未来场景,尝试回答了未来中国如何把控粮食贸易“主导权”的问题。模拟表明:未来30年,如果中国始终将政策目标确定为在生态红线范围内尽可能提高“自给率”,则可在现有WTO规则下通过精准的政策组合基本掌控主导权,如果政策工具选择失当,将处于被动局面;如果国际贸易形势有利,则可通过政策工具的量化组合拥有更大主导权;只要政策选择适当,即使国际贸易形势变得不利,仍能拥有一定的主导权。在“2050~2055年”基期之后,将会进入“掌控型主导”的战略优势状态。
This paper constructs the theoretical mechanism for the operation of China’s food trade system in the next 30 years,determines three base periods:2020~2025,2030~2035 and 2050~2055,and reconstructs the concepts of "comprehensive food" and "foreign countries".Through the RECS policy simulation based on MATLAB program,this paper quantitatively compares 300000 groups of possible future scenarios,and tries to answer the question that how China will dominate food trade in the future.Simulation experiments show that in the next 30 years,if China always sets its policy goal to increase the self-sufficiency rate as much as possible within the ecological red line,the dominant power will be acquired by precise policy combinations under the existing WTO rules.Otherwise,China will be trapped in a passive situation due to inappropriate policy tools.If the international trade situation is favorable,greater dominant power will be achieved by a quantitative combination of policy tools.As long as the policy choices are appropriate,China can still have a certain level of dominance even if the situation becomes unfavorable.After the 2050~2055 base period,it will enter the "overpowering dominance" strategic advantage state.
作者
倪国华
王赛男
金燕红
Ni Guohua;Wang Sainan;Jin Yanhong(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University;Rutgers University)
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期65-81,共17页
Journal of Management World
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073008)
国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA055)
北京市自然科学基金面上项目(9192006)的资助。
关键词
自给率
主导权
政策模拟
粮食贸易
self-sufficiency rate
dominant power
parameters simulation
food trade
