摘要
水上交通事故发生率高、危害性大,建立有效水上交通安全状态评价体系尤为重要。基于突变理论,从多角度分析人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系。采用CRITIC法根据重要性程度对指标进行排序,对各个指标进行规范化运算,即将各个指标的子指标进行归一化计算,根据计算所得各指标的隶属度函数,构建的水上交通安全状态评价体系。突变理论中不包含传统评价方法中各指标的权重模块,故所得结果更加客观可信。通过计算所建体系的效度和信度,证明其符合安全状态评价的要求。
Due to the high incidence and harmfulness of water traffic accidents, it is particularly important to establish an effective water traffic safety state evaluation system. Based on catastrophe theory, the coupling relationship among human, ship, environment, management and other risk factors is analyzed from multiple angles. The CRITIC method is used to sort the indicators according to the importance degree, and the standardized operation is carried out for each indicator, that is, the sub indicators of each indicator are normalized,and the water traffic safety status evaluation system is constructed according to the membership function of each indicator. The catastrophe theory does not include the weight module of each index in the traditional evaluation method, so the results are more objective and reliable. By calculating the validity and reliability of the system, it is proved that it meets the requirements of safety state evaluation.
作者
刘进来
杜子俊
李磊
LIU Jin-lai;DU Zi-jun;LI Lei(Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430061,China)
出处
《武汉船舶职业技术学院学报》
2022年第1期124-131,共8页
Journal of Wuhan Institute of Shipbuilding Technology
关键词
水上交通
安全状态评价
突变理论
water traffic
safety state evaluation
catastrophe theory
