摘要
以HD和DHQ库段内某流域干流的2 km缓冲区为研究区对库区水动力型滑坡区域综合预警进行研究。对选取的研究区滑坡敏感因子进行统计分析,提出卡方检验与多重共线性分析联合筛选的方法对敏感因子进行筛选,建立研究区滑坡敏感性最终指标体系,并基于不同的机器学习算法构建滑坡敏感性评价模型,结果表明,基于随机森林的模型精度最高,整体准确率达到98.00%,将其应用于研究区所有栅格,完成了研究区滑坡敏感性区划。同时将水动力型滑坡诱发因子降雨和库水位作为预警指标进行分析,基于历史滑坡数据及监测资料将各指标划分成5个不同的预警等级,建立基于滑坡敏感性的水动力型滑坡区域综合预警模型,以2019年12月23日为例得到当日研究区预警区划,并依据研究区近5年降雨和库水位条件提出假设最不利条件下的预警区划。
The buffer zone within 2 km away from the main stream of a certain river in the HD and DHQ reservoirs,is taken as the research region to study the regional-scale early warning of water-induced landslides in the reservoir area. The preliminary landslide susceptibility factors in the research region are analyzed and screened through the chi-square test and the multicollinearity analysis. A final index system of landslide susceptibility in the research region is obtained,and landslide susceptibility assessment models are constructed based on different machine learning algorithms. The results show that the model based on random forest has the best accuracy of 98.00%. This model is applied to the whole research region and the landslide susceptibility mapping is completed. Besides,the rainfall and the reservoir water level,two main hydrodynamic inducing factors,are considered as early warning indicators and analyzed based on historical landslide data and monitoring data,and five early warning levels are put forward. Then a comprehensive water-induced landslide early warning model based on landslide susceptibility is established. The early warning zoning map of the research region on December 23,2019 is obtained,and the early warning zoning map under the assumed most unfavorable conditions is also proposed based on the rainfall and the reservoir water level conditions of the research region in the past five years.
作者
王伟
袁雯宇
邹丽芳
陈鸿杰
程汝帅
徐卫亚
WANG Wei;YUAN Wenyu;ZOU Lifang;CHEN Hongjie;CHENG Rushuai;XU Weiya(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210024,China;Institute of Geotechnical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210024,China;School of Earth Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211100,China;Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc.,Kunming,Yunnan 650214,China)
出处
《岩石力学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期479-491,共13页
Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501100)
江苏高校“青蓝工程”项目
江苏省六大高峰人才项目。
关键词
边坡工程
水动力型滑坡
敏感性评价
预警指标
区域综合预警
单体预警
slope engineering
water-induced landslides
landslide susceptibility assessment
early warning indicators
comprehensive regional-scale early warning
single-scale early warning
