摘要
提出应用零膨胀泊松(ZIP)模型预测爆管的方法。通过采集南方某市多年供水管网灰口铸铁管数据以及爆管信息,分析管材、管径、管龄、管长、温度影响指数、降雨量及历史爆管情况等影响因素与管道爆管的相关性,基于ZIP模型建立爆管预测模型。研究结果表明:爆管与管径、温度影响指数和年降雨量呈负相关,与管龄、管长及爆管历史呈正相关,其中管径、管龄、管长和爆管历史对爆管影响显著。所建爆管预测模型的平均预测精度为86.98%;与爆管预测Logistic模型和Poisson模型的预测结果对比,基于零膨胀泊松模型的爆管预测模型效果最优。
A Zero-inflated Poisson(ZIP) model was proposed for pipe failure prediction.Data of grey cast iron pipes and pipe failure information of a city in south China were collected to analyze the correlation between pipe failure and pipe material,diameter,age,length,temperature influence index,rainfall and history number of pipe failure,and to establish the prediction model of pipe failure with Zero-inflated Poisson(ZIP) model studying.The results show that pipe failure is negatively correlated with pipe diameter,temperature influence index and annual rainfall,while positively correlated with pipe age,length and historical number of the pipe failure,and meanwhile the pipe diameter,age,length and historical number of the pipe failure have significant influences on failure.The average prediction accuracy of the established model reaches 86.98%.Moreover,compared with the results of pipe forecast models using Logistic model and Poisson model,the effect of the model based on Zero-inflated Poisson model is the best.
作者
杨玉龙
何凯军
季京宣
谭洋
徐圣兰
张可佳
YANG Yulong;HE Kaijun;JI Jingxuan;TAN Yang;XU Shenglan;ZHANG Kejia(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Zhejiang Huayun Electric Power Engineering Design Consulting Co.Ltd.,Hangzhou 310014,China)
出处
《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期560-568,共9页
Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07201004)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51978602)。
关键词
供水管网
零膨胀泊松(ZIP)模型
爆管预测
灰口铸铁管
water distribution system
Zero-inflated Poisson(ZIP)model
pipe failure prediction
gray cast iron pipe
