摘要
基于2019年四川省和河北省8个原贫困县(区)831份退耕农户调查数据,运用PSM-DID模型,估计退耕补贴到期对退耕农户收入及结构的净影响并进行异质性分析,同时利用中介效应模型分析影响机制。结果表明:退耕补贴到期能促使农户收入结构得以优化,对农户总收入具有一定的促进作用;退耕补贴到期会造成低收入组农户总收入降低;非农就业和劳动时间在退耕补贴到期与农户总收入的关系中具有中介效应。因此,建议增加非农就业机会,引导不同退耕农户建立多元化生计转型策略,及时出台和完善退耕还林后续政策。
⑴Background——The previous studies mainly employed predictive research and qualitative research methods to analyze the impact of the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion on farmers'income,and it remains unclear what impact the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion will have on farmers'income.⑵Methods——Based on the survey data of 831 farmland conversion farmers from 8 formerly poverty-stricken counties(districts)in Sichuan and Hebei Province in 2019,the PSM-DID model was used to estimate the net impact of farmland conversion subsidy expiration on the income and structure of farmland conversion farmers and conduct heterogeneity analysis.Meanwhile,the mediation effect model was used to analyze the impact mechanism.⑶Results——The regression coefficient of the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion on farmers'production and operating income was-0.899,indicating that it reduced farmers'production and operating income in a certain extent.The regression coefficients of the wage income and transfer income of households were 0.808 and 0.734,indicating that the wage income and transfer income of households were increased in a certain extent.The regression coefficient of total income of farmers is 0.516,and is significantly positive at 1%level,indicating that the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion can optimize the income structure of farmers and improve the income level of farmers on the whole.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion on the income of different farmers is different,and the impact coefficient of the total income of farmers in the low,middle and high income groups is-0.103,0.652 and 0.127,respectively,indicating that the total income of farmers in the low income group will decrease.The estimated effect coefficients of the total income of households in the low,medium and high cropland area groups were 0.597,0.541 and 0.488,respectively,respectively,indicating that the promotion effect o
作者
刘天婕
黄杰龙
赵娅娅
陈琛
杜温鑫
王立群
LIU Tianjie;HUANG Jielong;ZHAO Yaya;CHEN Chen;DU Wenxin;WANG Liqun(School of Economics & Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;School of Internet Economics and Business,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350011,China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2022年第2期188-195,共8页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71873017)
福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2020C013)。
关键词
退耕补贴到期
农户收入
贫困地区
PSM-DID
中介效应模型
the expiration of the subsidy for farmland conversion
household income
poverty stricken areas
PSM-DID
mediating effect model
