摘要
黄河流域高质量发展应是资源-环境-经济的协调发展。为了给黄河流域高质量发展决策提供参考,构建了黄河流域资源-环境-经济复合系统综合评价指标体系,基于2004—2017年《中国统计年鉴》《黄河水资源公报》、黄河流域各省区统计年鉴的有关数据,采用极差变化法、熵权法和耦合协调度模型,对黄河流域资源、环境、经济3个子系统及其复合系统耦合协调状况进行综合评价,并设定不同发展情景进行预测。结果表明:①黄河流域资源-环境-经济复合系统综合评价值逐年增大,其中资源子系统综合评价值最大、经济子系统综合评价值次之、环境子系统综合评价值最小。②黄河流域资源-环境-经济耦合协调状态不断改善,于2011年实现了由轻度失调到濒临失调的良好过渡,但目前耦合协调水平仍然很低,各子系统间发展不协调尤其环境对经济发展的制约问题突出。③从设定情景的预测结果来看,以2017年资源、环境、经济3个子系统综合评价值0.311、0.109、0.259为基准,若环境子系统综合评价值提升0.2同时经济子系统综合评价值提升0.1,则可使资源-环境-经济复合系统达到勉强协调状态;若资源、环境、经济3个子系统综合评价值均达到0.650,则可达到良好协调的较高质量发展状态。④为实现黄河流域高质量发展,首先要解决环境、经济这2个子系统综合评价值较小的问题,弥补耦合协调发展的短板,环境子系统应重点增加工业污染治理投资、提升工业固体废弃物综合利用量、减少工业固体废弃物产量,经济子系统应着重提升第一产业比重、固定资产投资额及社会消费品零售总额。
The high⁃quality development in the Yellow River Basin should be based on the coordination of resources,environment and econo⁃my.In order to provide insights for the decision⁃making related to high⁃quality development in the Yellow River Basin,this study built a com⁃prehensive evaluation index of the compound system of resources,environment and economy in the Yellow River Basin.Drawing upon China Statistical Yearbook and Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin from 2004 to 2017 and relevant statistics in the statistical yearbooks of the provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin and adopting the range change method,entropy weight method and a coupling development model,we performed a comprehensive evaluation of the coupling sub⁃systems of resources,environment and economy as well as that of the compound system in the Yellow River Basin and also predicted in various modeled development situations.The results show that a)the com⁃prehensive evaluation index score of the resources⁃environment⁃economy compound system grows yearly.Among the three sub⁃systems,the system of resources scores the highest,followed by the economic system with the environment system scoring the lowest.b)The coupling and coordination of resources,environment and economy have been improving and made the transition from mild disorder to being on the verge of disorder.However,currently the coupling and coordination are still on a low level with economic development suffering from the imbalanced development of these sub⁃systems,particularly the environmental sub⁃system.c)The comprehensive evaluation scores of the subsystems of resources,environment and economy are 0.311,0.109 and 0.259 respectively and these data will be used as a benchmark.According to the predictions made from the modeled situations when the score of the environmental subsystem goes up by 0.2 and that of the economic subsys⁃tem up by 0.1,the compound system will be just coordinated;when the score of each sub⁃system reaches to 0.650,a well⁃coordin
作者
张力隽
王余枫
夏永波
刘涛
白云龙
ZHANG Lijun;WANG Yufeng;XIA Yongbo;LIU Tao;BAI Yunlong(College of Mechanical and Power Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第3期11-15,共5页
Yellow River
基金
中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2020-ZD-18-5)。
关键词
高质量发展
资源-环境-经济系统
耦合协调度
熵权法
综合评价
黄河流域
high⁃quality development
resources⁃environment⁃economy system
coupling and coordination
entropy weight method
compre⁃hensive evaluation
Yellow River Basin
