摘要
为揭示祁连山北麓牧区人地关系演变与脱钩效应,本试验构建了草原资源消耗与经济增长脱钩分析的ImGCT模型和脱钩效应分解模型,以肃南县为例实证研究了草原牧区人地关系演变规律与阶段特征,揭示演变的驱动因素及作用效应。结果表明:1995—2019年25年期间,牧区人地关系仅1997—1998年和2014—2017年两个时段表现为脱钩状态,其余时段均未脱钩,体现出整体未脱钩局部脱钩的时序演变特征;人地关系是人口效应、经济效应、技术效应与资源强度效应共同作用的结果;人口与经济增长对草原资源消耗与环境压力具有增量效应,平均效应分别为0.2653和4.7421,经济增长是最重要驱动因子;资源强度和技术以减量效应为主,多年平均效应分别为—3.0228和—0.9847,技术进步的减量作用较小,以畜牧业转型发展为主要内容的资源利用强度的降低是实现脱钩的有效路径。
To explore the relationship and decoupling effects between grassland resource consumption and economic growth,the ImGCT model,decoupling effects decomposition model(DEDM)and decoupling index were constructed,and the decoupling relationship between grassland resource consumption and economic growth was empirically analyzed by taking Sunan County of the northern foot of Qilian Mountains as an example.The results showed that,during the past 25 years from 1995 to 2019,the human-environment relationship was relative decoupling and absolute decoupling for the period of 1997—1998 and 2014—2017 respectively,and non-decoupling for the rest of the time.As a whole,the temporal evolution characteristics of the human-environment relationship presented that“overall non-decoupling,partial decoupling”.Decoupling type of the human-environment relationship was the result of population effect,economic effect,technical effect and resource intensity effect.Population growth and economic increase had incremental effects on grassland resource consumption and environmental pressure with average effective values 0.2653 and 4.7421,respectively.The economic growth was the main driving factor.The decrease of resource utilization intensity and technological progress were the decrement effects with average effective values-3.0228 and-0.9847,respectively,which relieved the grassland environmental pressure.The reduction of resource utilization intensity with the transformation and development of animal husbandry as the main content was a feasible way to achieve decoupling.
作者
陈强强
赵荣芳
张浩珍
杨清
CHEN Qiang-qiang;ZHAO Rong-fang;ZHANG Hao-zhen;YANG Qing(College of Finance and Economics, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730070, China;Research Center for Ecological Construction and Environmental Protection of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730070, China)
出处
《草地学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期269-277,共9页
Acta Agrestia Sinica
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“生态理性视域下甘南黄河水源补给区草原生态保护农户认知行为与调适机制研究”(21BJY117)资助。
关键词
人地关系
ImPACT等式
ImGCT模型
脱钩效应
祁连山北麓
Human-environment relationship
ImPACT equation
ImGCT model
Decoupling effects
The northern foot of Qilian Mountains
