摘要
人口转变的动态过程是人口全要素的整体变化,延伸人口发展规律的轨迹。低生育率是未来人口的基本面,人口负增长与人口老龄化如影相随,出生性别比长期偏高的后果惯性显现,人口分布空间差异日渐明显,均是人口规律呈现的必然和大趋势,难以更改。然而,“七普”数据展现了当前和未来人口发展的新形势和新特点,超低生育率水平引发人口总量安全、结构安全和流动迁徙安全问题,区域人口流失造成人口负增长与区域发展矛盾尖锐,家庭功能整体弱化带来社会安全隐患等。人口负增长和老龄社会对经济社会发展的影响是长周期的、全方位的、系统性的,面对新生事物,要理性认识低生育率和人口负增长,辩证分析人口负增长和人口老龄化的利弊,充分应对人口老龄化形势,激活老龄社会的新人口红利。
The dynamic process of demographic transition is the overall change of population factors.Following the rule of population development,low fertility is the fundamentals of the future population.Negative population growth and population aging have occurred together,and the consequences of long-term higher sex ratio at birth are inescapable appear.The spatial difference in population distribution is becoming increasingly obvious.All above are the inevitable and general trends of the population regular pattern.However,the 7th national census data show the new situation and new characteristics of the current and future population development.The lowestlow fertility causes the population security problems of size,structure and migration.Regional population loss causes negative population growth and regional development contradiction sharply.The overall weakening of family functions brings for social security risks.The impacts of population negative growth and aging society on economic and social system are a long cycle,all-round,systematic.In the face of new things,we should be rational understanding of low fertility and negative population growth,and dialectically analyze the pros and cons of negative population growth and population aging,fully respond to the aging population situation and activate the new demographic dividend of aging society.
作者
原新
范文清
Yuan Xin;Fan Wenqing(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)
出处
《晋阳学刊》
2022年第1期52-61,共10页
Academic Journal of Jinyang
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”(项目编号:21ZDA106)阶段性成果。
关键词
低生育率
人口负增长
人口老龄化
人口新形势
low fertility
negative population growth
aging
new characteristics of population
