摘要
为了解决传统的结构分解法不能同时兼顾公式精简性与因素变化均匀性的问题,以结构分解法为理论基础并对其进行了改进,将其应用于节水建设代表城市——泰州市用水驱动效应的研究。研究结果表明:该地区5年间产业用水规模下降了9.14%,技术效应是泰州市节水效益的主要贡献者;规模效应是导致泰州市产业用水量增长的主要驱动因素;与技术效应相反,结构效应对泰州市各地区产业用水量增长的抑制作用呈不断减弱的趋势,但在经济落后地区仍有较大潜力。以GDIM分解结果为比较基准,两种结构分解法在整体上可以得出相似的结论,但对于部分用水因素变化剧烈的地区,传统的结构分解法会产生过高的贡献因素评价。改进后的结构分解方法无论是计算结果还是经济意义都更为精确,适用于用水量变化波动不定、经济影响因素错综复杂的节水建设时期。
In order to solve that the traditional structure decomposition method cannot consider the simplicity of formula and the uniformity of factor changes at the same time,in this study the structure decomposition method was improved and applied to the research on the water driving effect of Taizhou City,the representative city of water saving.The research results show that the scale of industrial water consumption in the region has dropped by 9.14%in the past five years.Technical effects are the main contributor to Taizhou’s water-saving benefits.The scale effect is the main driving factor leading to the growth of industrial water consumption in Taizhou.Contrary to technical effects,structural effects that have the inhibitory effect of the growth of industrial water consumption in various regions are showing a steadily weakening trend,but there is still great potential for structural effects in economically underdeveloped regions.Based on the GDIM decomposition results,the two structural decomposition methods can draw similar conclusions as a whole,while the traditional structural decomposition method will produce excessively high evaluations of contributing factors for some areas where water use factors change drastically.The improved structural decomposition method is more accurate both in terms of calculation results and in economic sense,and is suitable for water-saving construction periods when water usage fluctuates volatility and economic influencing factors are complicated.
作者
沈际杰
柏欣莉
衣鹏
SHEN Jijie;BAI Xinli;YI Peng(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期38-43,116,共7页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
因素分解模型
用水量
时空分异
节水
产业用水
驱动效应
泰州市
factor decomposition model
water consumption
spatio-temporal differentiation
water saving
industrial water consumption
driving effect
Taizhou City
