摘要
互联网社交媒体中的信息噪音加剧了投资者非理性情绪的扩散,基于网络数据挖掘来分析投资者心理偏差及其对资产价格和公司行为的影响具有重要的学术价值。本文采用网络爬虫技术获取新浪微博中盈余信息相关的发帖文本,借助互联网人工智能平台的情感分析算法构建投资者盈余乐观情绪指标,并以2010—2019年A股上市公司为样本研究投资者盈余乐观情绪对管理者迎合行为的影响。实证结果表明,投资者盈余乐观情绪与短期股票收益率正相关,投资者盈余乐观情绪越高涨,短期内股票价格被高估的程度越大,这种效应在意外盈余水平较高的情况下更为显著。管理者为了维持或推高公司股价,有动机通过盈余管理迎合投资者的高涨情绪,并且行业盈余同步性较低的公司实施盈余管理迎合的程度更大。进一步地,管理者实施迎合的手段还包括对公司财务文本信息进行语调管理,并且行业盈余同步性较高的公司实施迎合时更倾向于加强语调管理的程度。本文结合社交媒体信息环境深化了资本市场错误定价的相关研究,为规范上市公司信息披露行为、引导投资者树立正确投资理念提供了重要启示。
The information noise in internet social media intensifies the diffusion of investors’irrational sentiment,which brings important academic value to analyzing investors’different psychological biases and their impact on asset prices and corporate behaviors through internet data mining.This paper uses the web crawler technology to obtain the earnings-related posts on Sina Weibo,and constructs the investor earnings optimism indicator through a sentiment analysis algorithm which is provided by an online artificial intelligence platform.Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2019,this paper studies the effect of investor earnings optimism on managers’catering behavior.The empirical results show that investor earnings optimism is positively associated with short-term stock returns.The higher the investor earnings optimism,the greater the degree of overvaluation of stock prices in the short term.The above effect is more pronounced for stocks with higher unexpected earnings.To maintain or boost firms’stock prices,managers have incentives to cater to investor earnings optimism by managing earnings upward,and this effect is stronger for firms with a lower degree of earnings co-movements with the industry.Furthermore,managers’catering approach also includes managing the tone of words in corporate financial reports,and this effect is more significant for firms with a higher level of earnings co-movements.This paper deepens the research on capital market mispricing in combination with the social media information environment,and provides important implications for regulating corporate financial information disclosure and guiding investors to establish correct investment concepts.
作者
罗琦
吴乃迁
苏愉越
喻天琦
LUO Qi;WU Nai-qian;SU Yu-yue;YU Tian-qi(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期135-154,共20页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“控股股东代理问题、现金股利与资本结构动态调整”(批准号71772140)。
关键词
社交媒体
盈余乐观情绪
管理者迎合
盈余管理
语调管理
social media
earnings optimism
manager’s catering
earnings management
tone management
