摘要
区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)的签订不仅有利于国家间商品与服务的流通,同样也会促进国内区域间产业与要素的转移,进而改变区域经济格局。本文以RCEP为研究对象,将标准GTAP模型与中国区域可计算一般均衡模型(Sino-TERM)进行有效链接,并设定了短期、中期和长期三个宏观经济闭合政策情景,以评估RCEP签订对中国区域经济格局的影响效应。结果表明:在三种贸易自由化政策情景下,RCEP的建立都会对我国宏观经济,如实际GDP、居民福利及进出口等产生积极影响;RCEP的建立对不同区域的经济影响截然不同,劳动力进一步向东南沿海区域转移,将加速"孔雀东南飞"的转移浪潮;RCEP的建立对不同区域不同部门的影响大相径庭:农业的多数部门将受益于贸易自由化,劳动密集型产业如轻工业部门、纺织服装部门、木材制造业及造纸业等将受益颇多。
The signing of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership( RCEP) is not only conducive to the international circulation of goods and services,but also promotes the transfer of industries and factors between domestic regions,thereby changing the regional economic structure. This article took RCEP as the research object,effectively linked the standard GTAP model with China’s regional computable general equilibrium model( Sino-TERM),and sets short,medium and long-term three macroeconomic closure scenarios to evaluate the impact of the RCEP signing on China’s regional economic structure. The results show that: the establishment of RCEP will have a positive impact on China’s macro-economic parameters including real GDP,resident welfare,import and export in all three scenarios of trade liberalization policies;the establishment of RCEP has a sharply different impact on the economies of different regions,the further transfer of labor force to the southeast coastal area will foster a wave of "peacock flying southeast". The establishment of RCEP will have different effects on different sectors in different regions;most industries in agriculture will benefit from trade liberalization,labor-intensive industry has benefited a lot,such as light industry sector,the textile and clothing sector,wood manufacturing and paper industry.
作者
张恪渝
周玲玲
ZHANG Keyu;ZHOU Lingling
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期37-53,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(71733003)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国产业迈向价值链中高端:理论内涵、测度和路径分析”(71873142)
国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’战略实施中的物流瓶颈及解决方案研究”(17BGL011)
国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字经济时代文化和旅游融合发展的机制创新与实现路径研究”(20CGL023)。
