摘要
目的分析宝鸡市50岁及以上人群人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)感染者和艾滋病(acquired immune deficiency syndrome,AIDS)患者时空分布特征,发现≥50岁人群HIV/AIDS聚集区域,为针对性开展重点区域、重点人群艾滋病防控提供理论参考。方法收集2008—2019年宝鸡市年龄≥50岁HIV/AIDS报告病例信息,利用动态数列分析HIV/AIDS累积报告发病率变化趋势,利用ArcGIS10.1软件和SaTScan9.0软件分别进行热点分析、时空扫描分析。结果2008—2019年全市报告年龄≥50岁的HIV/AIDS病例347例,累积报告发病率波动在1.10/10万(10/909569)~17.85/10万(200/1120697)。空间分布分析结果显示,随时间推移县区累积报告发病率持续升高。热点分析结果显示,2008—2013年热点区域散在分布,自2014年起热点区域聚集性逐渐增强,以金台区、陈仓区为中心,逐步向周边县区播散。时空扫描探测到2个高发聚集区域,主要聚集区位于2014—2019年的渭滨区、金台区、凤翔县和千阳县(RR=2.78,LLR=41.10,P<0.01);次要聚集区位于2017—2019年的陈仓区、岐山县、扶风县和眉县(RR=2.48,LLR=24.85,P<0.01)。结论宝鸡市50岁及以上HIV/AIDS报告病例覆盖县区数增加,累积报告发病率持续升高。随着时间推移,高值聚集区逐渐固定在主城区,发病在时间和空间上存在聚集性,今后重点人群艾滋病防控应充分考虑高发聚集区县及周边县区。
Objective To study the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome(AIDS)among people over 50 years old in Baoji city of China from 2008 to 2019.Methods Information of HIV/AIDS among people over 50 years old in Baoji city of China from 2008 to 2019 was collected.Dynamic series analysis was used to analyze the trend of cumulative incidence of HIV/AIDS.ArcGIS10.1 software and SaTScan9.0 software were used for hot spot analysis and spatiotemporal scanning analysis.Results A total of 347 HIV/AIDS patients over 50 years old were reported during 2008 and 2019.The cumulative incidences ranged from 1.10/100000(10/909569)to 17.85/100000(200/1120697).Spatial distribution analysis showed that cumulative incidence rate continued to rise over time.Hotspot analysis showed that hotspots were scattered from 2008 to 2013.Since 2014,the concentration of hotspots had gradually increased with Jintai and Chencang counties as the center,and spread gradually to surrounding counties.Spatiotemporal scan analysis revealed two high-incidence clusters.The high-value cluster areas were identified including Weibin,Jintai,Fengxiang,and Qianyang counties during 2014 and 2019(RR=2.78,LLR=41.10,P<0.01),and the secondary clusters were located in Chencang,Qishan,Fufeng and Meixian counties during 2017 and 2019(RR=2.48,LLR=24.85,P<0.01).Conclusions In Baoji city,the number of counties with reported HIV/AIDS patients over 50 years old has increased and the cumulative incidence continues rising.The high-value cluster areas are in the main urban areas.The HIV/AIDS epidemic in over 50 years old persons shows a spatial and temporal aggregation characteristic.The high-risk cluster areas should be focused on for prevention and control of AIDS.
作者
高娟
杨培荣
郑维涛
李红兵
邓峰
严钏元
GAO Juan;YANG Pei-rong;ZHENG Wei-tao;LI Hong-bing;DENG Feng;YAN Chuan-yuan(Department of AIDS Prevention and Control,Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Baoji City,Baoji,Shaanxi721006,China;不详)
出处
《中国病毒病杂志》
CAS
2021年第5期370-375,共6页
Chinese Journal of Viral Diseases
基金
宝鸡市卫生健康立项(2019-51)。
关键词
艾滋病病毒感染者
艾滋病患者
时间空间分布
地理信息系统
热点分析
时空扫描分析
HIV infecter
AIDS patients
Spatiotemporal distribution
Geographic information system
Hotspot analysis
Spatiotemporal scan analysis
