摘要
为了解中国西北地区历史与未来时期的气候演变趋势,以CMFD再分析数据集及CMIP5全球气候模式输出数据为基础,从时空维度详细分析了西北地区历史气候的演变特征并对区域未来气候发展进行了预估。结果表明:1979-2018年西北地区的气温、降水量以及近地面空气比湿均呈现出明显的增加趋势,且未来极有可能继续增加;此外,降水量在年内的分配过程越趋均匀化,且降水结构在2001年左右发生了较大突变。整体来看,西北地区的历史气候演变显示出高度的暖湿化倾向。未来情景下,西北地区的气候将继续朝暖湿化方向发展,同时降水量的年内分配不均匀性也将进一步减小,且在RCP8.5排放情景下表现的更为突出。本研究可为西北地区气候变化的影响评估提供参考,同时也为水利、农业、气象和生态等部门的决策提供科学依据。
To understand the historical and future climate evolution trends in northwest China,the evaluation and projection of climate in northwest China were analyzed spatiotemporally based on CMFD(China meteorological forcing dataset)and the outputs of the CMIP5 global climate models.The results reveal that there was a significant increase in air temperature,precipitation and the near surface air humidity in northwest China during the period of 1979 to 2018,and they are most likely to keep increasing in the future.In addition,the precipitation process was more evenly distributed within the year,and its structure had gone through a significant abrupt change around 2001.Overall,the historical climate evolution in northwest China showed a strong tendency of warming and humidification.In the future scenario,the climate in northwest China will continue to develop towards warming and humidification,and the inhomogeneous distribution of precipitation within the year will keep narrowing down,especially in the RCP8.5 emission scenario.The study can provide a guideline for the assessment of the climate change in northwest China,and it also provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of water conservancy,agriculture,meteorology,ecology and other related administration departments.
作者
杜懿
王大刚
祝金鑫
DU Yi;WANG Dagang;ZHU Jinxin(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期61-69,77,共10页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51779278)。
关键词
气候演变
暖湿化
全球气候模式
降水集中度
基尼系数
西北地区
climate change
warming and humidification
global climate model
precipitation concentration degree
Gini coefficient
northwest China
