摘要
为了解气象因素对山西太长高速公路交通事故的影响程度,利用太长高速公路不良天气情况下2011年1月-2019年12月交通事故资料,与同期气象要素资料进行日变化特征对比分析,并采用逐步回归方法拟合四季交通事故与气象因子的相关关系,依据概率密度建立交通事故风险指标,确定事故增长的气象因素临界数值。结果表明:太长高速公路交通事故中,19.63%的交通事故由气象因素造成。交通事故10月最多,日迹变化具有双峰型特征,双峰对应时间分别为10:00与16:00。春、夏、秋、冬交通事故指数关系最为密切的因子分别为降水量、风速与路面湿滑、风速、降水量,二者相关关系拟合结果除秋季外,其余三季均通过0.05的信度检验,可为山西高速公路风险预警服务提供理论依据。
In order to understand the impact of meteorological factors on traffic accidents on Tai-chang expressway in Shanxi Province,use the traffic accident data from January 2011 to December 2019 under the condition of excessive expressway bad weather,the diurnal variation characteristics of the traffic accident data and meteorological elements data in the same period were analyzed.The stepwise regression method was used to fit the correlation between traffic accidents and meteorological factors in four seasons.According to the probability density,the traffic accident risk index is established,and the critical value of meteorological factors among different grades of traffic accident risk is given.The results show that 19.63% of the traffic accidents on the Tai-chang expressway are caused by meteorological factors.The number of traffic accidents is most in October,and the change of day trace has the characteristics of bimodal pattern,and the bimodal time is at 10:00 and 16:00 respectively.In spring,summer,autumn and winter,the factors most closely related to the traffic accident index were precipitation,wind speed and road surface slippery,wind speed and precipitation,respectively.The fitting results of the correlation relationship passed the reliability test of 0.05 in the other three seasons except autumn,which could provide a theoretical basis for the risk early warning service of Shanxi expressway.
作者
田淙海
邓佩云
于万荣
高欣
姚闯
TIAN Conghai;DENG Peiyun;YU Wanrong;GAO Xin;YAO Chuang(Meteorological Service Center of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030002,China;Technical center for meteorological disaster prevention in Ninchuan,Yinchuan 750002,China)
出处
《成都信息工程大学学报》
2021年第5期532-536,共5页
Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology
基金
山西省气象局科研资助项目(SXKMSFW20195617)。
关键词
应用气象
高速交通事故
气象要素
日变化
事故风险等级指标
applied meteorology
expressway traffic accident
meteorological factors
daily change
traffic accident risk level indicator
