摘要
文章通过建立新型开放经济宏观模型和实证计量模型,考察了金融开放扩大、金融效率提高是加大还是降低了中国经济波动性问题。模拟结果显示:金融效率不变时扩大金融开放会使消费、投资波动性先降后升呈U型特征,产出和利率波动性表现出先较平稳而后上升,就业和通胀波动性则一直上升;金融开放度不变时,各宏观变量波动性都随着金融效率提高呈下降趋势。实证分析结果也表明金融开放扩大会加大产出的波动性,对投资和消费影响的U型特征显著,提高金融效率可以平滑产出、消费和投资波动性。研究结果表明如果中国继续扩大金融开放而不同时提高金融效率,将引起宏观经济波动不确定性增加,金融效率的提高有利于平滑各宏观经济变量波动性。
By establishing the NOEM model and the empirical econometric model,this paper investigates whether the expansion of financial opening and the improvement of financial efficiency increase or reduce China’s economic fluctuation.The simulation results show that:when financial efficiency remains unchanged,the expansion of financial opening will make the fluctuation of consumption and investment decrease first and then increase with a U-shaped characteristic and the fluctuation of output and interest rate will be stable first and then increase,but the fluctuation of employment and inflation will keep rising;when financial opening remains unchanged,the fluctuation of macro variables decreases with the improvement of financial efficiency.The empirical analysis results also indicate that the expansion of financial opening will increase the fluctuation of output,and the U-shaped characteristic of its impact on investment and consumption is significant.Improving financial efficiency can smooth the fluctuation of output,consumption and investment.The research results reveal that if China continues to expand financial opening without improving financial efficiency at the same time,the uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuation will increase,and the improvement of financial efficiency is conducive to smoothing the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables.
作者
刘兰凤
袁申国
LIU Lan-feng;YUAN Shen-guo
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期68-84,共17页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY240)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2019A1515011008)。
