摘要
推行法定数字货币是建设现代中央银行制度的重要抓手。使用局部均衡分析方法得出法定数字货币影响宏观经济的基本逻辑,并运用动态随机一般均衡模型进行稳态、动态与福利分析。研究结果表明,若法定数字货币仅替代现金,则不会引起宏观经济与福利变化;若法定数字货币对存款产生替代,其给商业银行带来的缩表影响可由央行货币政策调控进行对冲,与此同时,其在促进经济增长并引导融资成本下行之际,也在一定程度上造成了福利损失。此外,相较于其他经济变量,法定数字货币对消费水平的影响机制更为复杂,但不会对消费稳态值产生较大影响。建议在数字人民币正式发行后,定期对其进行货币流动性监测并密切关注存款规模变化,同时可通过货币政策工具的灵活运用来积极应对可能引致的社会福利损失、消费动能不足等风险与挑战。
The implementation of a legal digital currency is an important starting point for building a modern central banking system.Partial equilibrium analysis was used to obtain the fundamental logic of the legal digital currency’s impact on the macroeconomy, while a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to conduct steady-state, dynamic, and welfare analysis.The results showed that if a legal digital currency replaces only cash, it will not cause macroeconomic and welfare changes.If the legal digital currency replaces deposits, its impact on the balance sheet reduction of commercial banks can be hedged by the central bank’s monetary policy regulation.Simultaneously, while promoting economic growth and guiding a decrease in financing costs, it has also caused welfare losses to a certain extent.In addition, compared with other economic variables, the legal digital currency has a more complicated influence mechanism at the consumption level, but it will not have a significant impact on consumption’s steady-state value.It is recommended that after the official issuance of the digital renminbi, it should be regularly monitored for currency liquidity, and close attention should be paid to changes in the scale of deposits.Through the flexible use of monetary policy tools, we can actively respond to possible risks and challenges, such as the loss of social welfare and insufficient consumption momentum.
作者
赵恒
连飞
周延
Zhao Heng;Lian Fei;Zhou Yan
出处
《金融经济学研究》
北大核心
2023年第1期18-33,共16页
Financial Economics Research
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BTJ064)。
关键词
法定数字货币
宏观经济影响
福利效应
legal digital currency
macroeconomic impact
welfare effect
