摘要
人口是影响和制约城市发展的重要因素之一.白城市位于吉林省西北部,人口密度较低,近年来人口数量逐渐下降.文章基于灰色GM(1,1)方法,运用2009—2018年人口数量数据,构建了白城市人口预测模型,对白城市未来15年人口数量进行预测.预测结果显示:2019—2033年白城市人口数量逐年减少,将对城市持续发展产生影响,最后提出白城市人口发展对策.
The population is one of the important factors that affect and restrict social development.Ba⁃icheng city is located in the northwest of Jilin province,and its population density is low,and the population has been deteriorating in recent years.This paper predicts future urban population of fifteen years according to the population data from 2009 to 2018,based on the grey GM(1,1)model.Results show that the predicted population will reduce from 2019 to 2033 in Baicheng,that will influence the urban sustainable development.At last,corresponding countermeasures is put forward.
作者
崔红艳
刘颖锋
郑柯
CUI Hong-yan;LIU Ying-feng;ZHENG Ke(College of Tourism and Geographical Sciences,Baicheng Normal University,Baicheng 137000,China;Zhenlai County Aquatic Authority,Zhenlai 137300,China;Zhenhai Ningbo Jiaochuan Academy,Ningbo 315000,China)
出处
《白城师范学院学报》
2021年第5期66-71,共6页
Journal of Baicheng Normal University
基金
吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学研究项目“海绵城市建设背景下的白城市水足迹研究”(JJKH20170010SK).
关键词
灰色GM(1
1)模型
人口数量
人口结构
人口预测
白城市
grey GM(1,1)model
population size
population structure
population prediction
Baicheng city
