摘要
2019年5月1日起,我国各省份将城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费比例从原规定的20%降至16%。在我国现阶段人口老龄化程度逐步加深的背景下,文章运用城镇职工基本养老账户收入精算模型分析在养老水平不下降的基础上,降低缴费率对城镇职工养老保险基金财务可持续性的影响,经过测算得出:降低缴费比例后,2020年基金结余开始出现赤字,2022年基金累计出现缺口,基金不可能实现在降低缴费率的情况下保证财务可持续性;实施提高工资增长率政策后,基金出现累计赤字的时间向后推迟一年,如果工资增长率高于GDP的2%,2042年基金结余开始由赤字转为正增长;实施延迟退休年龄政策,基金出现累计赤字的时间向后推迟3~20年不等;提高城镇企业职工平均工资水平及推迟退休年龄同时实施,基金在2031—2050年间均不会出现累计赤字,这为保证基金财务可持续发展,进一步降低缴费比率及提高养老水平提供了可能。
From May 1,2019,provinces in China can reduce the contribution rate of basic endowment insurance units for urban employees from 20% to 16%.With the gradual deepening of the population at the current stage in China,this paper uses the actuarial model of the basic pension account income of urban employees to analyze the reduction of the contribution rate to the urban employee pension insurance fund without reducing the level of pension.The impact of financial sustainability has been calculated as follows:After reducing the contribution ratio,the fund balance will start to deficit in 2020,and the fund will have a gap in 2022.It is impossible for the fund to ensure financial sustainability while reducing the contribution rate;After implementing the policy of increasing wage growth,the accumulated deficit of the funds will be postponed for one year.If the wage growth rate is higher than 2% of GDP,the fund balance will start to change from a deficit to a positive growth in 2042;Implementing the policy of delaying retirement age,the accumulated deficit of the urban employee basic pension insurance fund will be postponed for a period of 3-20 years;Improving the average wage level of urban enterprise employees and postponing the retirement age at the same time,there will be no accumulated deficit in the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in 2031-2050.This provides the possibility of ensuring the sustainable financial development of the fund,further reducing the contribution rate and improving the pension level.
作者
刘树枫
高硕
LIU Shu-feng;GAO Shuo(School of Economics,Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,Xi’an 710100,China)
出处
《西安财经大学学报》
CSSCI
2021年第6期50-61,共12页
Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目“降费背景下陕西省城镇职工基本养老保险可持续性测度及政策选择”(2020D040)。
