摘要
GM(1,1)模型在灰色统计模型中是最重要的一个预测模型。为了更好的进行预测,在传统的GM(1,1)模型基础上进行拓展,得到一个新的模型GM(1,1,be^(ck)),并给出建模方法。论文将从背景值等权和不等权两个方面对中国近20年第三产业增加值进行建模,结果显示,拓展模型的模拟和预测都比传统模型好。
GM(1,1)model is the most basic prediction model among the grey statistical models.In order to make better prediction,a new model GM(1,1,be^(ck))was developed based on the traditional GM(1,1)model and the modeling method was given.In this paper,the added value of China’s tertiary industry in the past 20 years has been modeled from two aspects of equal and unequal weight of background value.The results show that the expanded model is better in the simulation and prediction than the traditional model.
作者
李嘉诺
程毛林
LI Jianuo;CHENG Maolin(School of Mathematical Sciences,SUST,Suzhou 215009,China)
出处
《苏州科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第4期35-40,共6页
Journal of Suzhou University of Science and Technology（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11401418)。
关键词
增加值
拓展模型
背景值
预测
added value
extended model
background value
forecast
