摘要
电网固定资产投资中绝大部分是电网基建投资,投资的经济效益关乎电网公司的可持续发展。在当前输配电价改革的背景下,电网基建投资的经济效益面临着较大的不确定性。结合国外的输配电价监管模式,分析我国未来的输配电价改革趋势。研究电网基建项目从建设到退役的全寿命周期成本和整个运行期的收益,建立了电网基建项目动态投入产出模型,该模型能够适应未来输配电价的动态变化。最后,结合案例进行电价预测、负荷预测和投入产出计算,得出项目的投入产出指标,验证了模型的有效性和准确性。
Most of the fixed asset investment in power grid is power grid infrastructure investment,and the economic benefits of investment are related to the sustainable development of power grid companies.Under the background of current transmission and distribution price reform,the economic benefits of power grid infrastructure investment are facing great uncertainty.The future reform trend of transmission and distribution price in China was analyzed combined with the foreign transmission and distribution price supervision mode.The life cycle costs and benefits of power grid infrastructure projects from construction to retirement were studied,and a dynamic input⁃output model of power grid infrastructure projects was established,which can adapt to the dynamic changes of transmission and distribution price in the future.Finally,the input⁃output indicators of the project were obtained combined with the case,electricity price forecasting,load forecasting and input⁃output calculation to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the model.
作者
陆野
何永秀
张岩
吕媛
刘丽霞
余蕾
LU Ye;HE Yongxiu;ZHANG Yan;LYU Yuan;LIU Lixia;YU Lei(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute,Tianjin 300000;State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company,Yinchuan 750001)
出处
《山东电力技术》
2021年第10期25-32,共8页
Shandong Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71671065)
国网天津电力公司科技项目“适应输配电价动态管制的高质量电网精准化投资策略研究”(KJ19-1-21)。
关键词
输配电价改革
电网基建
全寿命周期
投入产出
transmission and distribution price reform
grid infrastructure construction
life cycle
input⁃output
