摘要
为降低成品油运输风险、减少事故发生,分析事故发生机理确定六大危险源。提出基于不同泄漏时间和泄漏地点人口密度的成品油风险后果评价方法,进而提出考虑事故易发性与事故后果的第一类危险源(危险货物)风险评估模型;构建了包括驾驶员、车辆、道路、环境、管理等第二类危险源风险评估体系,并划分指标风险等级及评价标准。采用AHP和熵权法相结合的博弈论赋权法,确定成品油道路运输风险评估体系的组合权重,采用TOPSIS方法进行综合风险评估。研究表明,通过计算不同泄漏时间和人口密度可以动态的确定成品油的风险后果;第一类危险源成品油本身对运输风险的影响最大,第二类危险源中驾驶员对运输风险影响最大,影响最小的是道路。成品油风险后果确定法对提升事故救援时效提供参考,综合风险评估模型为运输企业进行运输方案比选提供决策依据。
In order to reduce the risk of refined oil transportation and the occurrence of accidents,the mechanism of accidents was analyzed to determine six risk factors.The risk consequence evaluation method of refined oil is proposed based on the different leakage time and population density of the leakage location.Furthermore,a risk assessment model for the first type of hazard sources(i.e.dangerous goods)is proposed byconsidering accident susceptibility and accident consequences.A risk assessment system for the second category of hazards sources was established,which included drivers,vehicles,roads,environment,management,etc.Correspondingly the index risk grade and evaluation standards were divided.The game theory weighting method combining AHP and entropy weight method wasused to determine the combined weight of the risk assessment system ofrefined oil productson road transportation.The TOPSIS method wasused for comprehensive risk assessment.The conclusions are found:the risk consequences of refined oil products can be dynamically determined by calculating different leakage times and population densities;the first category of hazardsources(i.e.refined oil itself)has the greatest impact on transportation risks;in the second type of hazardsources,the driver has the greatest impact on transportation risks and the roadhas the least impact.The risk consequence determination method of refined oilprovides a reference for improving the timeliness of accident rescue.The comprehensive risk assessment model provides decision-making basis for transportation companies to compare and select transportation options.
作者
杨孟娇
闫振英
赵慧英
YANG Mengjiao;YAN Zhenying;ZHAO Huiying(Department of Teaching,Inner Mongolia Open University,Hohhot 010011,China;School of Transportation,Inner Mongolia Engineering Research Center for Urban Transportation Data Science and Applications,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing Jiaotong University MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第5期539-550,共12页
Journal of Inner Mongolia University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(72061028)
辽宁省交通科技项目(201524)
内蒙古开放大学工科专业发展教授工作室。
关键词
道路运输
成品油
事故分析
风险等级
博弈论组合赋权
风险评估模型
road transportation
refined oil product
accident analysis
classification of risk levels
combinatorial empowerment in game theory
risk assessment model