摘要
本文考察了1996—2018年人民币双边实际汇率变动和空间溢出效应对中国自"一带一路"沿线国家进口的影响。研究发现:人民币双边实际汇率变动显著影响中国自"一带一路"沿线国家的进口且存在门限效应,人民币升值能增加进口,贬值则抑制进口;实际汇率变动幅度低于门限值时对进口的影响明显超过高于门限值时产生的影响;中国自沿线国家进口的空间溢出效应显著且表现出集聚性,在选择邻接矩阵、地理距离逆阵和经济距离矩阵作为权重矩阵以及在模型中引入因变量时间滞后效应后结论依然稳健。中国在推进"一带一路"倡议时,应保持人民币汇率在合理均衡的水平上基本稳定;同时应充分考虑空间溢出效应的影响,注重优化贸易结构和区域布局,与"一带一路"沿线国家协同发展。
This paper studied the impact of the renminbi( RMB) bilateral real exchange rate fluctuations and spatial spillover effects on China’s import trade from the Belt and Road countries during the period of 1996-2018. It finds that China’s import trade is significantly affected by fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. The appreciation of RMB significantly increases import trade,while depreciation restrains import trade. There also exists a threshold effect. When the bilateral real exchange rate appreciates below the threshold value,it has a larger effect on the growth of imports,comparing to the case when the appreciation exceeds the threshold value. The spatial spillover effect shows agglomeration in the whole sample countries,which is robust after adopting the adjacency matrix,inverse geographic distance matrix,and economic distance matrix as the weight matrix. It also remains robust after introducing the time lag effect of the dependent variable into the model. In order to achieve coordinated developments with the Belt and Road countries,China should maintain a stable RMB exchange rate,fully consider the spatial spillover effect,and focus on optimizing trade structure and regional planning.
作者
邹宗森
郭昌明
冯等田
ZOU Zongsen;GUO Changming;FENG Dengtian(School of Economics,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao,Shandong,276826;School of Business,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao,Shandong,266520)
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目“人民币汇率变动的资源配置效应:基于制造业的研究”(ZR2020MG048)。
关键词
汇率变动
空间溢出
进口贸易
“一带一路”倡议
Exchange Rate Fluctuation
Spatial Spillover Effect
Import Trade
The Belt and Road Initiative
