摘要
2022年《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效,在新发展格局背景下深入研究中国与RCEP国家经贸合作关系具有重要实践意义。文章基于新经济地理模型,结合具有汇率因素的结构化贸易引力模型,以“冰山贸易成本”为切入点构建汇率变动、OFDI(对外直接投资)与进口贸易的理论模型,采用2008-2019年中国与RCEP国家的面板数据探索汇率变动、OFDI对进口贸易的影响。研究发现:第一,中国向RCEP国家OFDI与进口呈现互补关系,在考虑第三方汇率效应后,OFDI与进口的互补效应有所降低。第三方汇率中,中欧汇率变动显著降低进口,中美汇率变动增加进口但不显著;第二,将样本分为东盟十国与其余四国(日本、韩国、新西兰和澳大利亚)发现,中国向四国OFDI与进口依然具有显著互补关系,双边汇率变动依然显著促进中国与四国进口。第三方汇率变动中,中欧汇率变动显著促进中国与四国进口贸易,中美汇率变动抑制进口但不显著。中国向东盟十国OFDI与进口依然具有显著互补关系,但中国与东盟双边汇率变动对进口影响并不显著,同时中美汇率变动促进中国与东盟进口,而中欧汇率变动抑制进口,但两者影响均不显著;第三,进一步构建交互项模型考察汇率变动的中介效应,发现在OFDI的出口效应中,双边汇率变动和中美汇率变动增加均会提升同等水平OFDI的出口创造效应;中欧汇率变动对OFDI的出口效应没有影响;第四,以汇率变动作为门限变量构建门限回归模型,发现双边汇率变动增加会增强OFDI的进口促进效应,而第三方汇率变动并不具有显著门槛效应。
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)came into force in 2022,study closely of economic and trade cooperation between China and RCEP countries is of great practical significance in the background of the new development pattern.Based on the NEG model,combined with the structured trade gravity model with exchange rate factors,this paper build a theoretical model of exchange rate,OFDI and import trade which takes"iceberg trade cost"as the starting point,use the panel data of China and RCEP countries from 2008 to 2019 to explore the impact of exchange rate and OFDI on import trade.The result shows that:First of all,China's OFDI and imports to RCEP countries are complementary,the effect of OFDI and import is reduced after considering the third-party exchange rate effect,among the third-party exchange rates,exchange rate between China and Europe significantly reduce imports,while Sino-US exchange rate increase imports but not significantly.Secondly,dividing the sample into ASEAN countries and the remaining four(Japan,South Korea,New Zealand and Australia),find that OFDI and imports from China to the four countries are still significantly complementary,and bilateral exchange rate still significantly promote imports from China and the four countries.Among the third-party exchange rate changes,the exchange rate between China and Europe significantly promote the import trade,while Sino-US exchange rate inhibit the import trade but not significantly.China's OFDI to ASEAN countries still has a significant complementary relationship with imports,but the bilateral exchange rate between China and ASEAN have no significant impact on imports,Meanwhile,Sino-US exchange rate promote imports from China and ASEAN,while Sino-Euro exchange rate inhibit imports,but two effects are not significant.Third,constructed interaction term model to investigate the mediating effect of exchange rate,found that in the export effect of OFDI,both bilateral exchange rate and Sino-US exchange rate increase the export creation effect of O
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期175-190,共16页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环新发展格局下人民币汇率的资源配置效应研究”(21BJL015),项目负责人:邹宗森。
