摘要
通过对比中国与主要发达国家的能源消费、经济发展、碳排放情况,预测中国碳达峰时的能源消费量及能源结构,提出减碳路径,探讨碳达峰、碳中和目标下能源与经济发展对策。研究表明:(1)近50年,中、美、日的能源消费结构基本稳定,均以化石能源为主,大规模调整能源结构并非易事,需要循序渐进。(2)各个国家工业化阶段经济发展与能源消费增长基本同步。中国2019年单位GDP的能耗是16个主要发达国家碳达峰时平均水平的2.36倍,节能潜力巨大。(3)按照GDP年均增长5.5%以及相关规划要求,预测中国2030年能源消费总量将达58.3亿tce(吨标准煤当量),排放CO_(2)约102.7亿t。实现碳达峰需减排CO_(2)约76.93亿t,其中节能减排量占70.1%、非化石能源替代煤炭减排量占23.5%、天然气替代煤炭减排量占6.4%。(4)为实现2060年碳中和目标,建议以节能化为引领、以低碳化为关键、以电气化为方向、以氢气化为补充,推动能源结构和发展转型。
By comparing the relationship between energy consumption,economic development,carbon emissions and carbon peaking between China and major developed countries,this paper forecasts the energy consumption and structure,carbon reduction path when China reaches the peak of carbon,and discusses the energy and economic development countermeasures under the targets of emission peak and carbon neutrality.The study shows that:(1)The energy consumption structure of China,America and Japan has been basically stable for more than 50 years,which shows that it is not easy to adjust the energy structure on a large scale.It′s a gradual process.(2)The economic development and the growth of energy consumption basically kept pace with each country′s industrialization stage.China′s energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2019 is 2.36 times that of the average of 16 major developed countries at the time of the carbon peak,with huge potential for energy conservation.(3)According to the annual average GDP growth of 5.5%and the relevant planning requirements,China′s total energy consumption is expected to be 5.83 billion tce and CO_(2) emission will be about 10.27 billion tons in 2030.In order to realize carbon peak,CO_(2) emission reduction will be about 7.693 billion tons,of which energy conservation will account for 70.1%,non-fossil energy instead of coal accounted for 23.5%,natural gas instead of coal accounted for 6.4%.(4)In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060,it is suggested to take energy conservation as the guide,low-carbon as the key,electrification as the direction,and hydrogen as the supplement to promote the transformation of energy structure and development.
作者
朱法华
王玉山
徐振
许昌日
丁力
ZHU Fahua;WANG Yushan;XU Zhen;XU Changri;DING Li(State Power Environmental Protection Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210031,China;Beijing SPC Environment Protection Tech Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100142,China)
出处
《环境影响评价》
2021年第5期1-8,共8页
Environmental Impact Assessment
基金
国家能源集团科技项目(GJNY-20-110)
江苏省燃烧装置大气污染控制标准项目(JSZC-JC2019-026-1)。
关键词
能源消费
GDP
碳排放
碳达峰
碳中和
节能降碳
energy consumption
GDP
carbon emission
emission peak
carbon neutrality
energy saving and carbon reduction
