摘要
本文以北京市延庆区秤勾湾泥石流沟为研究对象,利用泥石流沟精细调查及历史资料,研究其降雨特征、流域特征、分区特征、物源特征,采用灰色系统关联度方法开展危险性评价研究,建立URCS-CN预警雨量模型,开展预警雨量阈值研究。研究结果显示:秤勾湾泥石流沟危险性评分为0.84分,危险等级为高危险,流域内红色预警过程雨量122 mm、橙色预警过程雨量109 mm、黄色预警过程雨量95 mm、蓝色预警过程雨量82 mm;秤勾湾沟泥石流累计流量与预警流量呈线性关系,前期的有效降雨与短时强降雨呈彼增我减的态势,在红色预警范围左侧为泥石流灾害的低频区,红色预警范围为泥石流灾害的高频区。研究成果为延庆地区该类泥石流单沟预警模型研究和灾害防治提供科学依据。
Debris flow gully based on Beijing Yanqing district scale hook bay as the research object,using the debris flow gully careful investigation and historical data,study the characteristics of rainfall and river basin,partition characteristics,source,using grey system prediction method to carry out risk assessment research,establish early warning model of rainfall,rainfall warning threshold study.The results show that the risk score of debris flow gully in Jingou Bay is 0.84,and the danger level is high danger.The rainfall in the basin is 122 mm during the red warning,109mm during the orange warning,95mm during the yellow warning,and 82mm during the blue warning.There is a linear relationship between the cumulative flow of debris flow and the early-warning flow in Liangouwan gully,and the effective rainfall in the early stage and the short-term heavy rainfall show a trend of increasing and decreasing.The left side of the red early-warning range is the low-frequency area of debris flow disaster,while the red early-warning range is the high-frequency area of debris flow disaster.The research results provide scientific basis for the research on the early warning model of such debris flow in single gully and disaster prevention and control in Yanqing area.
作者
梁永顺
孙永彬
王瑞军
LIANG Yongshun;SUN Yongbin;Wang Ruijun(Airborne Survey and Remote Sensing Center of Unclear Industry,Shijiazhuang 050002,Hebei,China)
出处
《矿产勘查》
2021年第8期1835-1843,共9页
Mineral Exploration
基金
北京市延庆区泥石流沟精细调查与评价项目(0747-1761SITCN426-4)资助。
