摘要
利用海河流域及其子流域漳河流域的实测站点资料,采用皮尔逊相关系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差以及相对偏差作为评价指标,对CRU(climate research unit)数据降水产品的月尺度降水数据在海河与漳河流域的适用性进行评估分析,结果表明:CRU数据在海河子流域漳河流域的适用性好于整个海河流域,各项评价结果均达到预期期望;突变性与周期性规律检验结果与以往基于实测数据分析结果相符;从相关系数角度来看,应用于2个流域的CRU数据在1990年之前整体表现良好,但在1990年后海河流域的相关系数显著下降。综上CRU数据可应用于海河流域与漳河流域的气候变化背景下水文过程模拟与分析,但应用于海河流域实测站点数据的还原时,应充分考虑其年际表现不一的问题。
Under the premise of climate change and the intensification of human activities, precipitation on a global scale shows obvious regional changes, has a certain impact on the natural environment and the development of human society.Therefore, studying the changes and laws of regional precipitation can not only promote the understanding of regional water cycle changes, but also have important significance for regional water resources protection, ecological construction, and sustainable and healthy economic development.The study of the hydrological cycle under climate change requires a long series of precipitation data, and the insufficient length of the existing data series is one of the main obstacles to climate change-related research.CRU applicability in the Haihe River basin(HRB) was analyzed from the perspectives of areal rainfall and site rainfall.To evaluate its system, the selected evaluation index is Pearson correlation coefficient(R),root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and bias.The applicability of CRU data in the Zhanghe River subbasin of the HRB is better than that of the entire HRB,and the evaluation results have reached the expected expectations.The mutation and periodicity test results are consistent with the previous analysis results based on the measured data.The difference in station density of the two river basins, the data processing method, and the error in the data itself make the evaluation results of the area rainfall of the two basins have a certain difference.Simultaneously, because CRU is 0.5° grid data, the HRB is affected by factors such as the limitation of the number of stations and the grid coverage area when the data is produced, which has certain limitations for restoring the measured data of the stations.Especially after 1990,there will be certain errors in the quality of the restored site data, which should be considered when using it in the future.CRU data can better reflect the rainfall change characteristics of the HRB and its sub-basins, and compared to the
作者
陈鑫
刘艳丽
刁艳芳
王国庆
关铁生
金君良
鲍振鑫
刘翠善
贺瑞敏
CHEN Xin;LIU Yanli;DIAO Yanfang;WANG Guoqing;GUAN Tiesheng;JIN Junliang;BAO Zhenxin;LIU Cuishan;HE Ruimin(State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation&Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai′an 271018,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第5期910-920,共11页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508104)
国家自然科学基金项目(51679145,91747103,51779146)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2019GSF11104S)。
关键词
降水产品
适用性
CRU
海河流域
漳河流域
高分辨率格点
precipitation product
applicability
CRU
Haihe River basin
Zhanghe River basin
high-resolution grid
