摘要
利用江苏2000年、2008年遥感数据,采用ArcGIS和Excel测算出南京市辖区8年土地利用的Markov转移矩阵,从数量、空间和结构角度分析2000—2008年的土地利用变化状况,预测2016年的各类用地面积。结果表明,2000—2008年研究区的城镇和工矿交通用地扩张较快,农村居民点用地略有减少,呈集中态势;耕地、草地、林地、水域减少,未利用地减幅最大。在空间上,研究区的建设用地扩张由"同心圆状"变为"纺锤状",土地利用集中度和强度都增大。2016年预测显示,城镇用地比重达44.76%,耕地减少23.47%,其余用地基本保持前8年的变化趋势,但动态度有所减小,仅农村居民点用地减幅增大。
Based on 2000 and 2008 remote sensing datas of Jiangsu Province,this article got Markov transfer matrix of the land-use change in study area by ArcGIS and Excel,and then this article analyzed land-use change condition of the study area in 2000 and 2008 from the aspects of quantity,space and structure.Finally,it also made a prediction of the land-use condition in 2016.The result showed that the urban construction land increased rapidly while rural sites decreased and gathered,farmland,grassland,forest,water and unused land all decreased.The figure of construction land became elliptical instead of round and the way of land use became intensive.According to the prediction in 2016,the proportion of city construction land would increase to 44.76%while farmland would decrease to 23.47%.Other types of land almost would keep the same pace of that in 2008,but the rate of decrease would slow down a little,only the decrease rate of rural construction sites would increase.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2011年第5期417-420,F0004,共5页
Resource Development & Market
基金
江苏省国土科技项目"江苏省国土开发度评价与差别化土地政策研究"(编号:2009363)
