摘要
水库诱发地震的形成及其诱震地点、强度等是受水库区地质环境影响和制约的,因而水库诱发地震危险性预测主要是依据库区的地质环境条件。本次在分析和研究有关水库区的地震和地质资料的基础上,采用地震地质类比、概率分析法和灰色聚类法,对玉龙喀什水利枢纽水库诱发地震的可能性进行了预测分析。结果表明,该水库存在水库诱发地震的可能性,但诱发地震强度为微震,最大震级预测为3级。
The formation,location and intensity of earthquake induced by reservoir are affected and restricted by the geological environment of the reservoir area,so the risk prediction of reservoir induced earthquake is mainly based on the geological environment of the reservoir area.Based on the analysis and study of the seismic and geological data of the reservoir area,this paper uses the seismic geological analogy method,probability analysis method and grey clustering method to predict and analyze the possibility of the reservoir induced earthquake of Yulong Kashi water control project.The results show that the possibility of earthquake induced by reservoir exists in the reservoir,but the induced earthquake intensity is micro-seismic,and the maximum magnitude is predicted to be 3.
作者
姬永尚
JI Yong-shang(Hydro and Power Design Institute of Xinjiang,Urumqi Xinjiang 830000,China)
出处
《西部探矿工程》
CAS
2021年第10期1-4,共4页
West-China Exploration Engineering
关键词
水库诱发地震
危险性分析
概率分析
灰色聚类法
reservoir induced earthquake
risk analysis
probability analysis
grey clustering method
