摘要
基于分布式户用光伏发电补贴退坡和平价上网两阶段构建系统动力学模型。首先,在对历年补贴退坡情况进行分析研究的基础之上,按照一定的下调比例对补贴退坡进程中户用光伏的装机量、投资意愿和单位装机成本进行预测。其次,模拟其步入平价上网阶段后各指标的发展趋势,得到2020年至2028年户用光伏发展的仿真结果。最后,使用算例验证模型有效性。算例表明,户用光伏将在2022年由补贴退坡转入平价上网阶段,并且到2025年左右将正式从平价上网的适应阶段过渡至发展阶段。
According to the two stage of subsidy decline and grid parity,a model of system dynamics is constructed.Firstly,based on the analysis of the decline of subsidies in the past few years,it is predicted of the installed capacity,investment willing-ness and unit installed cost of residential photovoltaic in the pro-cess of subsidy decline according to a certain reduction ratio.Then,the development trend of each index after it enters the stage of grid parity is simulated.The simulation results of residential photovoltaic development from 2020 to 2028 are obtained.Finally,an example is used to verify the validity of the model.The example shows that residential photovoltaic will change from subsidy de-cline to the stage of grid parity in 2022,and it will officially transi-tion from the adaptation stage to the development stage of grid pari-ty access by around 2025.
作者
王欣
谢文华
WANG Xin;XIE Wenhua(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132000,China)
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
2021年第5期76-80,共5页
Power Demand Side Management
基金
吉林省社会科学基金项目(2019A11)。
关键词
户用光伏
系统动力学
补贴退坡
仿真预测
residential photovoltaic
system dynamics
sub-sidy decline
simulation prediction
