摘要
后苏联地区的民众中或多或少对俄罗斯都保持着一定的认同,这种认同的载体不是单纯的俄罗斯族,而是俄罗斯离散族群。后苏联地区的俄罗斯离散族群是俄罗斯重要的外交工具,"德左"问题、阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯问题、克里米亚问题都与之相关。俄罗斯、离散族群与离散族群所在国形成一组三边互动的三角关系。俄罗斯的政策工具主要包括软实力政策、媒体政策、国籍政策等。俄罗斯影响力的发挥取决于四个因素:离散族群的密集存在是前提,所在国的政策失当为俄罗斯提供机会,与俄罗斯关系处理不当是根源,所在国局势失控是导火索。后苏联地区的俄罗斯离散族群尚处发展期,认同模式可塑性较强。随着时间的推进,后苏联地区俄罗斯离散族群对俄罗斯的向心力可能会逐渐消解,但这是一个漫长的过程。因此,若后苏联地区各国在本国民族问题与和俄罗斯关系问题上处理不当,俄罗斯离散族群依然会对各国的稳定与领土完整构成威胁。
People in the post-Soviet space more or less have an identity with Russia.This sense of identity not only exists among the ethnic Russians,but more importantly is shared by the Russian diasporas.The Russian diasporas in the post-Soviet space constitute an important diplomatic tool of Russia,in that the Transnistria issue,the Abukhazia issue,the South Ossetia issue and the Crimea issue are all related to the Russian diasporas.Russia,the Russian diasporas,and the countries where the Russian diasporas live form a trilateral relationship of interaction.The success of Russia’s intervention,through its soft power,media,financial aid and nationality policy among others,on the countries where the Russian diasporas live is determined by four factors.First,the Russian Diaspora in the country is populous.Second,the country mishandles its domestic affairs.Third,diplomatic relations with Russia turn sour.Fourth,the situation in the country runs out of control.As the Russian diasporas in the postSoviet space are still under development,their identity is prone to be reshaped.With the time passing by,Russia may eventually lose its appeal to the Russian diasporas.However,this is a long process.Therefore,unless the countries in the post-Soviet space handle their domestic ethnic issues or diplomatic relations with Russia properly,the Russian diasporas would pose a threat to the stability and territorial integrity of these countries.
出处
《世界民族》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期53-66,共14页
Journal of World Peoples Studies
基金
国家社科基金一般项目“大国博弈视角下的中亚语言竞争与语言规划研究”(18BYY058)的阶段性成果。
