摘要
出口商品集中度通常被看作是货物贸易顺差的一个重要影响因素,而出口商品集中度可以反映出一国或一地区对外贸易出口的基本走向.通过对新疆货物贸易顺差、出口商品结构集中度和出口商品地理集中度的分析,可以发现,新疆出口商品高度集中于两大类商品,即纺织服装产品和工程机械产品.新疆外贸出口商品市场也高度集中于几个国家,其地理集中度呈现出总体下降的趋势.同时建立VAR模型对新疆货物贸易顺差及出口商品集中度的关系展开实证研究,基于协整方法的分析表明:新疆出口商品集中度与货物贸易顺差之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且二者表现为反向变动的关系.
The concentration degree of export commodities is usually regarded as an important factor affecting the trade surplus of goods,and the concentration degree of export commodities can reflect the basic trend of foreign trade of a country or a region.Through the analysis of Xinjiang’s trade surplus,the concentration of export commodities structure and the geographical concentration of export commodities,it can be found that Xinjiang’s export commodities are highly concentrated in two categories,namely textile and garment products and construction machinery products.The export market of Xinjiang’s foreign trade is also highly concentrated in several countries,and its geographical concentration presents a general trend of decline.At the same time,the VAR model is established to carry out empirical research on the relationship between Xinjiang’s trade surplus and export commodity concentration,the analysis based on the co-integration method shows that:There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the concentration of export commodities and the surplus of commodity trade in Xinjiang.
作者
王乾星
WANG Qian-xing(Department of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Open University,Urumqi 830049,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
2021年第16期77-87,共11页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
