摘要
本文的写作动机直接来源于 Baldwin和 Mazumdar关于贸易与增长关系的争论。通过将贸易与新古典增长理论相结合 ,Baldwin认为只要一个国家参与对外贸易 ,资本积累就会形成 ,进而促进经济增长。Mazumdar按照其分析方法却得出了与之不同的结论 :一个国家只有出口消费品和进口资本品时 ,资本积累才会形成 ,进而导致经济增长 ,因此 ,贸易能否引致经济增长取决于一国的贸易结构。为了验证 Mazumdar这一假设 ,本文构造一个贸易结构测度指标 ,通过格兰杰因果关系检验和 VAR模型估计中国的贸易结构与经济增长的关系。检验结果显示 ,中国的贸易结构并不显著影响经济增长。
This article roots in Baldwin and Mazumdar's debate on the relationship bet ween trade and growth. Baldwin took it for granted that trade would cause capita l accumulation, which will accelerate economic growth. But Mazumda r argued that trade can cause growth only when consumer goods are imported and c apital goods are exported. Whether trade can cause growth or not depends on the trade composition. This art icle applies the data of China to validate Mazumdar's hypothesis by designing an index of trade composition. The result reveals that in China's case the trade c omposition doesn't affect growth remarkably.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第11期31-39,共9页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
浙江省 2 0 0 3年度哲学社会科学规划重点课题"出口增长
结构变迁与竞争优势"(项目编号 :Z0 3 YJ2 1)的研究成果之一。
