摘要
为了解世界游泳男子项目的发展水平和成绩发展态势,本文主要通过灰色预测法,对第1-18届世界游泳锦标赛男子项目前8名成绩发展态势进行分析,并根据灰色预测模型对第19届世界游泳锦标赛男子项目前8名平均成绩进行预测。研究结果表明:男子游泳增长速度较慢的项目有50米自由泳、50米蛙泳、50米蝶泳、200米蝶泳、400米自由泳、800米自由泳和1500米自由泳共7个项目;增长速度较快的项目有50米仰泳、100米自由泳、100仰泳、100米蛙泳、100米蝶泳、200自由泳、200米仰泳、200米蛙泳、200米个人混合泳、400米混合泳共10个项目;运用均值GM(1,1)模型对第19届世界游泳锦标赛男子项目前8名平均成绩进行预测并得到预测结果,男子游泳17个项目中,100米仰泳和200米仰泳呈现成绩下降趋势,其余项目则呈现成绩提高趋势;我国在仰泳和个人混合泳上处于世界领先水平,但在短距离自由泳、蛙泳、蝶泳上与世界水平差距较大;通过分析世界游泳男子项目成绩发展态势、对第19届世界游泳锦标赛男子项目前8名平均成绩进行预测并结合2021年全国游泳冠军赛暨东京奥运会选拔赛男子项目前3名成绩,从运动员培养、运动训练、比赛战略、科技创新给我国提出建议。
To understand the development level and development trend of world swimming men's events,this paper mainly analyzes the development trend of the top 8 men's events in the 1-18 World Swimming Championships by using the grey prediction method,and predicts the average results of the top 8 men's events in the 19th World Swimming Championships by using the grey prediction model.The results show that there are seven events in men's swimming with a slower growth rate:50m freestyle,50m breaststroke,50m butterfly,200m butterfly,400m freestyle,800m freestyle and 1500m freestyle.The fastest growing events include 50 meter backstroke,100 meter freestyle,100 meter backstroke,100 meter breaststroke,100 meter butterfly,200 meter freestyle,200 meter backstroke,200 meter breaststroke,200 meter individual medley and 400 meter medley.The average GM(1,1)model was used to predict the average results of the top 8 men's swimming events in the 19th world swimming championships and the predicted results were obtained.Among the 17 men's swimming events,the results of 100-meter backstroke and 200-meter backstroke showed a downward trend,while the results of the other events showed an upward trend.In backstroke and individual medley,China is in the world's leading level,but in short distance freestyle,breaststroke,butterfly,there is a big gap with the world level;Through the analysis of world swimming man project achievement development situation,the project before the 19th world swimming championship to predict the eight grade point average and combined with the national swimming championships in 2021 and Tokyo Olympic trials men project before three grades,from athletes training,sports training and competition strategy,the science and technology innovation Suggestions to our country.
作者
陈禹名
陈洁星
CHEN Yu-ming;CHEN Jie-xing(School of Physical Education and Sport Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 35000,China)
出处
《福建体育科技》
2021年第4期60-65,共6页
Fujian Sports Science and Technology
关键词
世锦赛
游泳
男子项目
成绩
灰色预测
world championships
swimming
men's events
results
grey prediction
