摘要
探讨农业生产性服务业发展对农民增收的作用机制与约束条件,对农业生产性服务业发展水平提高、农业技术成果转化和农民增收具有重要意义。基于2009—2018年的省级面板数据,运用中介效应模型,对农业生产性服务、农业技术进步和农民收入之间的作用逻辑进行研究,建立以人均经营土地规模为门槛变量的面板门槛模型,探讨农业生产性服务对农民增收的非线性影响。结果表明,农业生产性服务与农业技术进步均正向影响农民收入,对工资性收入的提升效果强于对经营性收入的提升效果。农业技术进步为农业生产性服务与农民增收之间的中介变量,中介效应为4.5%,农业技术进步的中介作用在粮食主销区中最大,远远高于主产区和产销平衡区。通过农业生产性服务实现的技术进步更容易提高农业经营性收入;整体上,农业生产性服务对农民增收的影响表现为非线性,随着人均经营土地规模的扩大,农业生产性服务对农民总收入与工资性收入提升呈现出边际效应递增的规律,而服务对经营性收入的提升不受土地经营规模的影响。尤其在粮食主产区,当人均经营土地规模跨过一定门槛后,更有利于农业生产性服务增收效应的发挥。因此,目前应将农业生产性服务业的发展重点放在粮食主产区与产销平衡区,进一步重视并充分发挥农业生产性服务促进农业科技成果转化为生产力的能力,加强服务的技术支持,尤其是劳动替代性技术的引入,通过土地经营权流转与全程托管等形式的规模经营来缓解人多地少对农业生产性服务充分发挥作用的制约。
Understanding the mechanism and the constraints of the impacts of the development of agricultural producer services on farmers’income growth is of great significance to the improvement of agricultural producer services,the transformation of agricultural technology progress and the increase of farmers’income.Based on a provincial panel data from 2009 to 2018,this paper analyzed the logical relationship among agricultural producer services,agricultural technology progress,and farmers’income growth by the mediation effect model and the panel threshold model with the land scale per capita as the threshold variable to verify the nonlinear impacts of agricultural producer services on the growth of farmers’income.Results show that agricultural producer services and agricultural technology progress have some positive impacts on farmers’income and both of which have stronger effects on wage income than on agricultural income.Agricultural technological progress is the intermediary variable between agricultural producer services and farmers’income,and the intermediary effect is 4.5%.The intermediary role of agricultural technological progress in the main grain consumption regions is the largest,which is far higher than that in the main production regions and the production and consumption balance regions.Technological progress through agricultural producer services is easier to increase agricultural income than wage income.In general,the effects of agricultural producer services on the growth of farmers’income are nonlinear.With the expansion of land scale per capita,the marginal effects of agricultural producer services on the growth of farmers’total income and wage income present an increasing trend,while the promotion effect of services on agricultural income is not affected by the land scale.Especially in the main production regions,when the scale of land exceeds certain threshold,it is more conducive to increase the promotion degree of agricultural producer services to farmers’income.Therefore,this pa
作者
张恒
郭翔宇
ZHANG Heng;GUO Xiang-yu(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150036,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期652-663,共12页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
文化名家暨“四个一批”人才工程项目(中宣办发〔2015〕49号)。
关键词
农业生产性服务
农业技术进步
农民增收
粮食产销区
中介效应模型
面板门槛模型
agricultural producer services
agricultural technology progress
farmers’income growth
grain production and consumption regions
mediation effect model
panel threshold model
