摘要
为避免以往主要针对局部机场网络开展航班延误传播分布和现实数据观察等表象研究,发掘大面积航班延误的要素影响规律,提出了基于航班频率偏好的航空演化网络模型,并将经典传染病SIS传播分析方法与航班延误传播过程相结合,构建基于航空演化网络的延误传播模型,以及延误传播概率及其与影响要素之间的分析方法。基于东航实际运营数据,得到延误传播概率与航线距离、航班频率、实际缓冲时间、进离港总延误时间4个影响因素之间的回归量化关系,并由此给出了控制航班频率、避免频繁起落、降低航线繁忙程度、增大缓冲时间的结论。
In order to avoid the problem that previous research of flight delay propagation distribution and real data observation mainly focuses on local airport network in the past, and to explore the influence law of large area flight delay factors, an aviation evolution network model based on flight frequency preference was proposed. A delay propagation model based on the aviation evolution network was constructed by combining the classical SIS propagation analysis method with the process of flight delay propagation, and the analysis method of the delay propagation probability and its relationship with influence factors was also proposed. Based on the actual operation data of China Eastern Airlines, the regression quantitative relationships between the probability of delay propagation and the four influencing factors of route distance, flight frequency, actual buffer time, total delay time of arrival and departure were obtained. Finally, the conclusion is that flight delay propagation should be reduced by controlling flight frequency, avoiding flight frequent take-off and landing, reducing the busy degree of the route and increasing the buffer time.
作者
田文
高海超
宋津津
杨帆
TIAN Wen;GAO Hai-chao;SONG Jin-jin;YANG Fan(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 211106,China;The 28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Nanjing Jiangsu 210016,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2021年第7期36-39,共4页
Computer Simulation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71971112、61903187)
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20190416,BK20190414)。
关键词
延误传播概率
分析
研究
Delay transmission probability
Analysis
Research
