摘要
目的分析2014―2018年中国大陆31个省份结核病发病率受每千人床位数、人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)、人口密度与全年日照时数等因素影响的时空变化特征,为今后结核病的防治提供理论依据。方法通过空间自相关分析,探究各年份中国大陆结核病发病的时空集聚性;建立时空加权Logistic回归分析模型,揭示结核病发病的时空非平稳性,同时与经典Logistic回归分析模型拟合结果相比较。结果2014―2018年中国大陆结核病发病率全局空间Moran’s I指数分别为0.43、0.44、0.47、0.49、0.37,呈现一定的时空相关性;时空加权Logistic回归分析模型系数函数取值在(-1,1)区间波动,能很好反映结核病发病的时空异质性,各系数函数可信区间均不含0,通过时空非平稳性检验。多项拟合优度检验结果均优于经典Logistic回归分析模型。结论中国大陆31个省份结核病发病率与四个宏观因素密切相关,各地区需因时因地制宜制定区域防控策略。
Objective The number of beds per thousand,gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,population density and annual sunshine hours were investigated to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of tuberculosis incidence of 31 provinces in the Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2018,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the spread of tuberculosis in the future.Methods The spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to explore the spatio-temporal agglomeration of the incidence of tuberculosis in the Chinese mainland in each year.A geographically and temporally weighted Logistic regression analysis model was established to reveal the spatio-temporal non-stationarity of tuberculosis incidence,and to compare the fitting results with the classic Logistic regression analysis model.Results The global spatial Moran’s I index of tuberculosis incidence in the Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2018 were 0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.37,showing a certain spatiotemporal correlation.The coefficient function of the geographically and temporally weighted Logistic regression analysis model fluctuated in the interval(-1,1),and could reflect the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of tuberculosis well.The confidence interval of each coefficient function did not contain 0,which had spatio-temporal non-stationarity.The results of the goodness of fit test were better than the classic Logistic regression analysis model.Conclusions The incidence of tuberculosis in 31 provinces in the Chinese mainland was closely related to four macro factors,and appropriate strategies should be formulated for tuberculosis prevention and control according to the difference of regional social macro factors.
作者
毕圣贤
胡锡健
张辉国
BI Sheng-xian;HU Xi-jian;ZHANG Hui-guo(Department of Statistics,College of Mathematics and System Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期758-762,811,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(11961065)
新疆高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2017M001)。
关键词
结核病
时空自相关
时空加权Logistic回归分析模型
时空非平稳性
Tuberculosis
Spatio-temporal autocorrelation
Geographically and temporally weighted Logistic regression analysis model
Spatio-temporal non-stationary
