摘要
基于系统动力学构建京津冀绿色发展系统模型,分别从产业结构、绿色信贷、能源税收、碳税、碳交易机制、科技6项政策维度出发并赋予政策调控因子,动态仿真不同政策工具实施效果。研究结果表明:产业政策相较绿色信贷政策更能促进京津冀绿色发展;一定范围内提高能源税税率对京津冀绿色发展有促进作用;组合碳减排政策相较单一碳减排政策更能促进京津冀绿色发展,且组合碳减排政策实施效果并非单一碳减排政策实施效果的简单加总;科技政策对CO2排放抑制作用强于对能源消耗抑制作用。
Based on the theories of system dynamics,a green development systematic model of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was constructed and six important policy dimensions(industrial structure,green credit,energy resources taxation,carbon tax,carbon trading mechanism,science and technology)were investigated while policy regulations were considered in order to simulate the effect of different policies on green development.The investigation results indicate that compared with green credit,industrial structure policy can promote the green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei more effectively;raising the rate of energy are sources taxation can promote the green development within a certain range;combined carbon reduction policy is better than the single one in promoting green development,and the implementation effect of combined policies are not the simple sum of the single ones;the inhibiting effect of science and technology policies on carbon reduction is stronger than that resulting from restraining energy resource consumption.
作者
李健
李宁宁
LI Jian;LI Ningning(School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China;College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300372, China)
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期14-25,共12页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“京津冀协同发展战略实施中若干重大问题研究”(15JZD021)
天津市科技计划项目“京津冀协同发展视角下的高新技术企业发展战略研究”(18ZLZDZF00190)。
关键词
绿色发展
系统动力学
政策模拟
京津冀
green development
system dynamics
policy simulation
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
