摘要
2020年美国大选以在任总统特朗普谋求连任失败而告终,但特朗普的政治影响力并未随其任期结束而消退。从中长期看,肇始于2016年大选的"特朗普革命"对于美国政治的意义可能不亚于20世纪80年代的"里根革命"。"特朗普革命"的内涵主要包括民粹主义/反建制主义、本土主义以及种族主义/白人至上主义三大要素,其生成和发展的动因在于冷战后全球化进程的深入推进对美国国内多元化社会力量产生了差异化冲击,民主、共和两党"对等极化"背景下文化多元主义的狂飙突进走到了"政治正确"的极端,以及社会贫富分化和阶层固化使得建制派精英改革能力缺失引发了社会中下层的强烈不满。"特朗普革命"对美国政治的中长期影响将表现在政治结构、政治周期、意识形态和政治议程四个方面,即加剧了美国政党政治极化和党内分化、加速了政党重组进程、赋予了"左""右"之争新的意涵、重塑了美国国内政治议程,使"身份-认同"取代"经济-阶层"成为美国政治议题的核心,进而引发了政党的跨阶层联盟。对"特朗普革命"的深刻理解将是把握美国政治未来走向的关键。
The 2020 U.S.presidential election ended with the failure of Trump to seek re-election.Nevertheless,in view of the acute controversy on election culminated in Capitol riot and the growing development of a Trump haunted Republican Party,Trump’s political clout has not faded with his leave.In the long run,the impact of Trump Revolution would be in parallel with that of Reagan in the 1980s.The revolution is composed of three elements,namely populism or anti-establishment,nativism and racism or white supremacy.The revolution is rooted in the deepening globalization after the cold war that produced diversified impact on various walks of life in the U.S.The polarization of wealth distribution intensified by the neoliberal economic approach,together with the over exaggeration of political correctness caused strong dissatisfaction by the middle and lower classes toward the establishment.In mid and long term,the impact of Trump Revolution would be manifest in the change of political structure,political cycle,ideology and political agenda.The intensified political polarization and intra-party division would accelerate party realignment,creating a new spectrum between“left”and“right”.The political agenda would be reshaped with“identity value”replacing the“economic strata”which in turn would trigger the cross-party alliance.In a nutshell,the Trump Revolution is of great significance in grasping the direction of American politics.
出处
《当代美国评论》
CSSCI
2021年第2期81-98,123,124,共20页
Contemporary American Review
基金
笔者主持的2019年度教育部人文社科青年基金项目“美国政治转型对特朗普政府外交政策的影响研究”(项目编号:2019YJCGJW012)的阶段性成果
关键词
美国政治
“特朗普革命”
政党重组
政治周期
The Trump Revolution
American Politics
Party Realignment
Political Cycle
