摘要
目的了解“全面二孩”政策的实施对辽宁省未来至2070年人口老龄化、人口抚养比、劳动力供给等方面产生的影响,针对未来人口结构特性,为政府相关部门采取相关政策提供理论依据。方法运用队列要素分析法建立人口结构的预测模型,利用三种方案预测“全面二孩”政策下辽宁省人口总量、劳动人口总量、老龄化程度和育龄妇女人口数量的发展趋势。结果预测到2070年辽宁省人口总量呈下降趋势;至2060年,低中高方案的劳动年龄人口数占总人口比重下降到45.87%、47.02%、47.51%,后逐年缓慢攀升;老年人口从2015年的563.78万人增加到峰值2045年的1381.48万人,后逐年下降到2070年的927.50万;中高方案的育龄妇女人口总数下降至2045年之后呈缓慢上升趋势。结论辽宁省未来人口总量呈负增长趋势;人口结构表现为老年人口增多、劳动力人口占比下降、育龄妇女人数下降、总抚养比攀升等特征。可见,当前全面二胎政策不能及时缓解辽宁省人口结构问题,但从长期效果来看,存在一定调控作用。
Objective Understanding the impact of the implementation of the universal two-child policy on the population aging,population dependency ratio,labor supply and other aspects of Liaoning Province in the next 80 years,and providing theoretical basis for relevant government departments to adopt relevant policies according to population development trends.Methods Using the cohort-component method to establish a population structure prediction model,and using three options to predict the development trend of the total population,labor population,aging degree and the number of women of childbearing age under the“Comprehensive two-child”policy.Results The results show that the total population of Liaoning Province is predicted to decline by 2070;the proportion of the working-age population in the low,medium and high program in the total population has decreased to 45.87%,47.02%,47.51%in 2060,and then slowly increase year by year;the elderly population from 5.637 million in 2015.It increased to a peak of 13.8148 million in 2045,and then decreased year by year to 9.2750 million in 2070;the total number of women of childbearing age in the middle-and high-level programs declined to a slow upward trend after 2045.Conclusion The total population of Liaoning Province will show a negative growth trend in the future;the population structure is characterized by an increase in the elderly population,a decline in the proportion of the labor force,a decline in the number of women of childbearing age,and a continuous increase in the total dependency ratio.The current comprehensive two-child policy cannot alleviate the population structure problems of Liaoning Province in a timely manner,but from the perspective of long-term effects,there is a certain regulation effect.
作者
秦甜甜
张启梦
王妙辰
曹晓红
刘红波
Qin Tiantian;Zhang Qimeng;Wang Miaochen(Department of Health Statistics,School of Public Health,China Medical University,110122,Shenyang)
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期348-352,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L18ATJ001)。
关键词
人口预测
队列要素法
人口老龄化
Population forecast
Cohort-component method
Aging population
