摘要
从金融与实体经济利润分享的理论机理出发,对中国银行业盈利水平进行回顾分析,并与美日德银行业进行了横向比较。利用面板门限模型实证发现,银行业盈利与实体经济发展之间存在双门限非对称效应,当银行业净利润率低于0.491%时,提高银行业盈利水平会因利润"掠夺"抑制实体经济发展;在0.491%-0.801%区间时,银行业盈利提升有利于实体经济发展,两者处于最舒适的共生状态;高于0.801%时,继续提升银行业盈利则对实体经济的促进作用减弱,不过仍处于正向促进的共生状态。现阶段,中国银行业盈利状态对实体经济发展的促进作用整体上已经由次优状态转入最优区间,这得益于2016年以后中国政府的强力去杠杆、严监管,及时果断"踩刹车",将金融业从"自我循环"的盈利"幻觉"中拉回,避免了滑向危害实体经济边缘的不良后果。
Starting from the theoretical mechanism of profit sharing between finance and real economy,this paper reviews and analyzes the profitability of China’s banking industry,and makes a horizontal comparison with the banking industry of the United States,Japan and Germany.Using the panel threshold model,it is found that there is a double-threshold asymmetric effect between banking profit and real economic development.When the net profit rate of banking is less than 0.491%,improving the profitability of banking will inhibit the real economic development due to profit"plunder";In the range of 0.491%-0.801%,the improvement of banking profits is conducive to the development of the real economy,and the two are in the most comfortable symbiotic state;When it is higher than 0.801%,the promotion of the real economy will be weakened by continuously improving the profitability of the banking industry,but it is still in a symbiotic state of positive promotion.At present,the promotion of the profitability of China’s banking industry to the development of the real economy has shifted from the sub-optimal state to the optimal range as a whole,which is due to the strong deleveraging and strict supervision of the Chinese government after 2016,and the timely and decisive"stepping on the brakes",which has pulled the financial industry back from the"illusion"of"self-circulation"profit and avoided the adverse consequences of slipping to the edge of harming the real economy.
作者
林键
范从来
蔡欣磊
Lin Jian;Fan Cong-lai;Cai Xin-lei
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期22-31,共10页
Economist
基金
国家社会科学基金重大研究专项项目“新时代中国特色经济学基本理论问题研究”(18vxk002)。
关键词
银行业利润
实体经济
门限效应
改革路径
Banking Profit
the Real Economy
Threshold Effect
Reform Path
