摘要
经济周期战略的选择对商业银行保持盈利成长性和稳定性有着重要的影响。本文运用主成分分析的方法对我国14家商业银行2004-2011年的数据进行分析,确定衡量商业银行总体经营状况的综合指标,进而找出各家银行的经济周期战略,最后用于分析经济周期战略的选择对银行盈利能力的影响。实证结果表明,采用弱周期战略总体有助于提高商业银行的盈利能力,但相对影响力有限。这表明我国商业银行应采用弱周期的稳健增长模式。
Business cycle strategies have important influence on the growth and stability of commercial banks＂ profits. Using the principal component analysis method to analyze the data of 14 commercial banks from 2004 to 2011, we find the measure of overall business status of banks and then use it to determine banks＂ business cycle strategies, which are used to analyze the impacts of business cycle strategies on profitability of banks. Empirical results show that the counter-cyclical strategy helps to improve the profitability of commercial banks although the impact is limited.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期88-96,共9页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
商业银行
经济周期
盈利能力
Commercial Banks
Business Cycle
Profitability
