摘要
随着电力系统的快速发展,其可靠性亟需提升。从设备维护和运行角度上来看,需要建立电力系统可靠性分析的模型,因此基于马尔科夫链的模型,提出了三状态转移图。利用历史数据样本,计算出马尔科夫状态转移矩阵,总结出首次故障平均时间的可靠性指标,对电力系统的可靠性进行快速评估。基于合理的应用分析,采用马尔科夫链模型,验证了电力系统状态转移的马尔科夫性,证明了研究方法的准确性和合理性。
With the rapid development of power system, its reliability needs to be improved. From the perspectives of equipment maintenance and operation, the model of power system reliability analysis is established, the model is based on Markov chain, and a three-state transition diagram is proposed. Using historical data samples, the Markov state transition matrix is calculated. The reliability index of mean time to first failure is summarized to evaluate the reliability of power system quickly. Based on the reasonable application analysis, the Markov chain model is used to verify the Markov property of power system state transition, and the accuracy and rationality of the research method are proved.
作者
毛澍
张丽
谈军
赵永生
赵爱华
MAO Shu;ZHANG Li;TAN Jun;ZHAO Yongsheng;ZHAO Aihua(Power Reliability Management and Engineering Quality Supervision Center,National Energy Administration,Beijing 100031,China;Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210000,China;State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230001,China)
出处
《微型电脑应用》
2021年第3期151-154,共4页
Microcomputer Applications
关键词
马尔科夫链
电力系统
快速评估
可靠性
连锁故障
输电线路
Markovlan chain
power system
rapid evaluation
reliability
cascading failure
transmission line
