摘要
在电力通信接入网中,对接入网通信业务建模以及未来业务的预测,对于容量规划、异常检测、流量工程和准入控制等方面有重要意义。文章主要对配用电通信业务预测进行研究,基于某省电力系统通信接入业务历史量,建立符合该业务预测的数学方法,即基于分数阶灰度的业务预测算法。然后基于不同业务分区采用该方法估计该省的省会城市未来终端通信业务总量。最后根据该省的省会城市各区域用电信息采集业务分布密度和配电自动化业务分布密度,得到了该省会城市不同区域通信终端业务总量预测值。这些结果将为该省电网未来几年配电网规划与建设提供可靠、有效的理论依据。
In the power communication access network,the modeling of communication services of access network and the prediction of future services are of great significance for capacity planning,anomaly detection,traffic engineering,admission control and other fields.This paper mainly studies the prediction of distribution and utilization communication service.Based on the number of historical communication terminals of the power system of a province,a mathematical method is given,i.e.,the fractional gray theory.Then,in different regions,this method is used to forecast the number of communication terminals of a provincial capital city in the future.Finally,according to the distribution density of the electric information acquisition and distribution automation,the forecasting number of communication terminals in different regions of the provincial capital city is obtained.These results will provide reliable and effective basis for the planning and construction of the power communication access network of the province in the next few years.
作者
杨芳僚
陈小惠
刘津
孙鹏
刘星
YANG Fangliao;Chen Xiaohui;LIU Jin;SUN Peng;LIU Xing(Hunan Key Laboratory for Internet of Things in Electricity,State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410000,China;College of Electrical Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《电力信息与通信技术》
2021年第6期91-96,共6页
Electric Power Information and Communication Technology
基金
国网湖南省电力有限公司科技项目资助“终端通信接入网规划技术研究”(B716A6190003)。
关键词
业务预测
电力通信接入网
用电信息采集
配电自动化
分数阶灰度理论
service forecasting
power communication access network
electric information acquisition
distribution automation
fractional gray theory
